'Energy Ceasefire': The Calculations Behind Trump's Love-Hate Relationship With Russian Oil

US President Donald Trump has just announced an immediate 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine, only days after Washington eased sanctions on Russian fuel to counter surging domestic and global gasoline prices.

The ceasefire was announced on Sunday, marking another shift in Washington's approach to Russian energy, amid the Iran-US war and recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities that have disrupted global oil supplies and driven fuel prices higher. Trump has even urged Ukraine not to attack Russian oil and gas facilities, since Moscow remains a major diesel exporter.

Surging diesel prices in recent weeks have put particular pressure on Trump's Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections. Polls show Americans blame the Trump administration for rising fuel costs amid the unpopular US war in Iran.

"Attacks on refineries and energy facilities have taken capacity out of an already tight global fuel market, pushing up transport, agricultural and business costs, and ultimately consumers foot the bill," Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, told Al Jazeera, referring to the reciprocal strikes on energy facilities between Ukraine and Russia. "A genuine ceasefire could help protect supplies and ease some of that pressure, especially with winter approaching."

However, she cautioned it was too early to call it a "diplomatic breakthrough", citing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's remark that the energy ceasefire came to him as a surprise.

Trump's decisions have drawn criticism from US politicians and European allies, who warn that allowing Russian fuel back onto global markets could give Moscow new revenue to fund its war in Ukraine. In March, the Trump administration granted a sanctions exemption for Russian seaborne oil.

So why does Trump keep shifting his stance on Russian energy, and what lies behind his latest decisions?

What is the 'energy ceasefire' Trump announced?

On Sunday, Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to immediately stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure.

"Both sides have agreed. Don't break the deal!" he wrote on Truth Social, without providing further details.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he did not know about the energy ceasefire, calling the deal "news to me", but still welcomed the announcement. However, he said Russian drones continued to target Ukrainian energy facilities, including a power plant in Kharkiv, after Trump's announcement.

"We are waiting for details on the conditions between the Americans and the Russians, and to see a concrete step the Americans are ready to take," Zelenskyy said on Monday in a video address to a security conference in Warsaw. "This energy ceasefire can work, and could become a major step toward ending the war if the Americans really engage now and ensure the Russians respect it."

Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russian refineries, arguing that energy revenues help fund Moscow's war. Russia, meanwhile, has attacked Ukraine's power and heating infrastructure throughout four years of conflict.

Scholar Alexey Muraviev urged caution over Trump's announcement, questioning whether a deal had actually been reached and, if so, what it covered.

"Is it a pause on strikes on refineries? And if that is the case, the situation would not be satisfactory, because Ukraine's refineries have already been knocked out by Russian strikes," Muraviev, a senior research fellow in Defence and Strategic Studies at Edith Cowan University, told Al Jazeera. "In that sense, it would mean Ukraine unilaterally suspending actions against Russian refineries."

Muraviev also linked the announcement to the diesel deal between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting it could be a signal to Zelenskyy.

"Striking Russia's refining capacity would likely be seen by Washington as a strike on US economic interests," he said, referring to the diesel export deal running until April 2027.

Where are global oil prices?

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to weigh on global oil markets.

On Monday, Brent, the international benchmark, fell to about $103.04 a barrel after Trump's ceasefire announcement and the diesel deal with Russia, while US WTI traded at about $90.96. Prices nonetheless remain high because of the US-Israeli war with Iran that began on February 28 and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, the key waterway through which a fifth of the world's oil supply passes.

Recent attacks by Yemen's Houthi forces on Saudi oil facilities and airports, along with fighting around the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb strait, have added further pressure on oil prices. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have worsened diesel shortages, a fuel essential to agriculture and road transport. The crisis prompted the G7 last week to agree to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves, after pressure from Trump.

How has the Trump administration swung between sanctions and leniency on Russian energy?

Washington's approach to Russian energy has shifted repeatedly since Moscow launched its full-scale military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022.

Under President Joe Biden, the US banned imports of Russian oil and energy in March 2022, aiming to cut off revenue funding Moscow's war. But Washington also backed the G7 price cap on Russian oil, designed to limit Moscow's income without pulling too much supply off global markets. The Biden administration also accepted India's continued purchases of Russian crude to prevent global prices from rising.

After returning to office last year, Trump initially stepped up pressure on Moscow. In August 2025, his administration imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods over New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil. Two months later, Washington sanctioned Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, accusing Moscow of not seriously pursuing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.

Yet Washington's approach shifted sharply this year. On March 5, Washington granted India a 30-day exemption to buy Russian oil stranded at sea, as shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz caused by US strikes on Iran threatened global supplies. A week later, the Trump administration expanded the exemption, allowing countries worldwide to buy sanctioned but already-loaded Russian oil and petroleum products, effective until April 11.

In September, Trump urged Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries, blaming the strikes for global diesel shortages. On October 9, he announced a deal with President Putin for Moscow to release more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, with another 1.5 million tonnes to follow.

Why does Trump keep changing his stance on Russian oil?

Trump's shifting public stance on Russian energy reflects constant, and sometimes contradictory, political and economic pressures.

"Trump is caught between geopolitical ambition and the domestic political consequences of expensive energy," Susannah Streeter of Wealth Club told Al Jazeera. She said Washington is trying to pressure Moscow over the war in Ukraine while allowing Russian fuel sales that could generate more revenue for the Kremlin.

"The shift may deliver short-term political benefits if supplies rise and prices fall, but it could come at a long-term diplomatic cost," she said, adding that the benefits appear limited while the Middle East war continues.

US diesel prices hit a record $6.52 a gallon in September, pressuring Trump ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. According to scholar Muraviev, however, a distinction should be drawn between the US president's public statements and his administration's actions.

"I don't really see inconsistency in Trump's approach, because beyond the public statements and frequent media posts, his administration maintains a more stable approach," he told Al Jazeera. He pointed to discussions between Russian and US officials in August and September, suggesting negotiations on the latest diesel deal may have begun before Trump's Friday announcement.

Muraviev argued the timing of the announcement may have political motives, allowing Trump to claim a win on energy prices before the midterms. Moreover, Moscow has an interest in helping Trump maintain political influence because his administration appears more willing to negotiate with Russia than former President Biden. Trump is relatively more accepting of Russia's position on the Ukraine war and has even blamed Zelenskyy for failing to end it.

"For Putin, it is not just about securing immediate economic benefits but also achieving long-term political and strategic goals," Muraviev said, referring to other issues such as Iran, cybersecurity, space cooperation and nuclear arms control.

The energy crisis also has mixed consequences for US businesses. High oil prices can boost revenues for US energy producers but raise operating costs for fuel-dependent businesses.

Streeter said cheaper diesel could ease the burden on transport companies, farmers and manufacturers, though additional supplies from Russia are unlikely to make a major difference while Middle East disruptions continue. She also warned that frequent changes to sanctions could create uncertainty for businesses making long-term investment and supply chain decisions.

"If sanctions are eased, reimposed or changed within a short period, businesses will face greater uncertainty over supply, compliance and the risk of being caught on the wrong side of a policy reversal," she said.