Spain's far-right Vox rises as crisis threatens PM Sanchez

Madrid, Spain – "What I really hate about [Prime Minister Pedro] Sanchez is how eager he is to let more immigrants into our country," said Alberto Munoz, wearing the red-and-yellow wristband of Vox supporters.

The 24-year-old programmer from Barcelona is part of a growing group of young Spaniards drawn to the far-right, anti-immigration party. Eight years ago, Vox was a tiny fringe force in Spanish politics. But polls suggest it is closing in on power as Spain heads into a snap election on November 29.

A parliamentary majority requires 176 seats. According to a recent survey by El Pais, the leading centre-left daily, the conservative People's Party (PP) together with Vox — whose support is projected to double compared with the 2023 election — would win 198 seats. If the PP forms a coalition with Vox, it would mark the first time the hard right has returned to power in Spain since Francisco Franco died in 1975.

In the last election in 2023, the PP won the most votes but fell short of governing alone and did not ally with Vox. Instead, Sanchez of the Socialist Workers' Party formed a government with the support of the Catalan nationalist party Together for Catalonia.

Since then, the PP has formed four regional governments with Vox, and the two parties share power in around 100 councils. An alliance between them now would likely spell defeat for Sanchez.

"There is hope for Spain with this election. We will fight for victory and to convince Spaniards that we deserve their vote," Jose Antonio Fuster, Vox's national spokesman, told Al Jazeera. "But the PP cannot make the mistake of 2023 and must not divide up ministries before we win."

Sanchez's party is projected to win 112 seats in November, down from 121 three years ago. If the Socialists lose, it would mark the end of one of the last remaining left-wing governments in Europe, following far-right advances in France, Germany, Italy, Austria and Finland as populism spreads across the continent.

Steven Forti, an expert on the far right who teaches contemporary history at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, said that like other far-right parties in Europe and Latin America, Vox keeps its distance from Franco's dictatorship. Santiago Abascal, Vox's leader, once told the Spanish parliament that Sanchez's government was "the worst in 80 years" — implying Franco's dictatorship was better.

"It's dog-whistle politics — you don't explicitly mention the dictatorship. Vox is like other far-right parties in that respect," Forti told Al Jazeera. "Young people are drawn to Vox by a sense of rebellion against establishment parties, nationalism and anti-immigrant sentiment. If the polls are right, they will take power with the PP, but what matters is which ministries they control."

Vox is the only party to have significantly increased its support. A survey for RTVE, the state broadcaster, forecast that the far-right party would increase its parliamentary seats from 33 to 65, while showing that support for the PP has not grown and that every left-wing party is losing votes.

Antonio Alonso, a lecturer in international relations at CEU San Pablo University in Madrid, argued that the right-wing parties are more stable than their deeply divided opponents. "The key thing is that the far left is split into too many different groups and will find it hard to mobilise them into a united front. Meanwhile, the right, with the PP and Vox, is more united," he told Al Jazeera.

Alberto Nunez Feijoo, the PP leader, plans to tap voter anger over corruption scandals linked to Sanchez. "This is an election between corruption and integrity, between decline and prosperity, between a government that only wants to survive and a country thinking about its future," he told reporters after Sanchez called the snap election. He has also pledged to build 200,000 homes a year and cut taxes.

Driven by a housing crisis that has brought tens of thousands of protesters onto Spain's streets, Sanchez called the election as a bold gamble to rally support and upend the polls. The eviction of Maria del Carmen Abascal, an 87-year-old woman, from the Madrid flat where she had lived for seven decades caused public outrage and prompted activists to camp out in central Madrid and other cities. Known nationwide as Maricarmen, she died this month after the protests.

When two government bills aimed at protecting people like Abascal were voted down in parliament, large protests erupted, and Sanchez decided to seize on the wave of anger to call the election. Observers say Sanchez hopes the strong emotions around the housing crisis can outweigh anger over corruption scandals involving members of his family, what is seen as his mishandling of the migration crisis in Ceuta, and pardons for Catalan separatists who led the failed 2017 independence bid.

The two defeated housing measures, aimed at protecting tenants from eviction, were subsequently passed by the caretaker government. "They protect the most vulnerable and, in a way, begin to restore order to a market that is now deeply distorted, not operating on the logic of supply and demand because of rampant speculation," Sanchez told reporters.

Yet even though Sanchez is known as a skilled campaigner, the gamble may not be enough. Even before Sanchez called the election, the Socialists had trailed in almost every poll for months, with most voters saying they would back the PP and Vox.