US-Israel war on Iran likely to end with US withdrawal

The US-Israel war against Iran, launched on February 28, 2026, is likely to end with a US withdrawal. According to analysts, Washington cannot continue the war without causing catastrophic consequences. A new escalation could destroy oil and gas infrastructure and desalination plants in the region, triggering a lasting global disaster. Iran can impose costs the US cannot bear and the world should not have to suffer.

The US-Israel war plan was a decapitation strike, pushed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad Director David Barnea to President Donald Trump. The premise was that a fierce coordinated US-Israeli bombing campaign would weaken Iran's command system, nuclear program, and senior IRGC leadership to the point of regime collapse. The US and Israel would then install a pliable government in Tehran.

Trump appeared convinced that Iran would follow a path similar to Venezuela. The US operation in Venezuela in January 2026 removed President Nicolas Maduro in a joint CIA and internal Venezuelan state apparatus campaign. The US gained a more pliable regime, while most of Venezuela's power structure remained intact. Trump naively believed the same outcome would occur in Iran.

However, the campaign against Iran failed to produce a pliable government in Tehran. Iran is unlike Venezuela in history, technology, culture, geography, military, demographics, or geopolitics. What happened in Caracas has little bearing on what will happen in Tehran.

The Iranian government did not collapse. The IRGC, rather than being decapitated, strengthened its internal command system and expanded its role in the national security architecture. The office of the Supreme Leader remained steady; the religious establishment rallied around; the people united against the external attack.

After two months, Trump and Netanyahu have no successor Iranian government under their control, no Iranian surrender to end the war, and absolutely no military route to victory. The only path, and the one the US seems to be taking, is withdrawal, with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and no other US-Iran issues resolved.

Analysts point to several reasons for the US's disastrous miscalculation and Iran's success. First, US leaders fundamentally misjudged Iran. Iran is a great civilization with 5,000 years of history, deep culture, national resilience, and pride. The Iranian government will not bow to US bullying and bombing, especially as Iranians remember how the US destroyed Iranian democracy in 1953 by overthrowing a democratically elected government and establishing a 27-year police state.

Second, US leaders significantly underestimated Iran's technological level. Iran has world-class engineering and mathematics. It has built a domestic defense industrial base with advanced ballistic missiles, a domestic drone industry, and domestic orbital launch capability. Iran's technological development achievements, built despite 40 years of escalating sanctions, are an incredible national accomplishment.

Third, military technology has shifted in Iran's favor. Iran's ballistic missiles cost a fraction of the interceptors the US deploys against them. Iran's drones cost $20,000, while US air defense interceptors cost $4 million. Iran's anti-ship missiles, costing in the low six figures, threaten US destroyers worth $2-3 billion. Iran's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) network around the Gulf, multi-layered air defense, drone and missile saturation capability, and sea denial ability at the Strait have made the cost of imposing US will on Iran far higher than Washington can sustain, especially given the retaliatory destruction Iran could inflict on neighbors.

Fourth, US policy-making became irrational. The Iran war was decided by a small group of presidential loyalists at Mar-a-Lago, without formal interagency process and with a National Security Council eroded over the previous year. US National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent resigned on March 17 with an open letter describing an "echo chamber" used to deceive the president. The war was the product of a decision-making system where discussion machinery was shut down.

This is not an inevitable war, nor a deliberate one. It is a war of impulse. The basic premise is hegemony. The US is trying to defend global dominance it no longer holds, and Israel is trying to establish regional dominance it will never have.

The likely outcome, based on all this, is that the war will end with a return to nearly the original status quo, except for three new realities on the ground. First, Iran will have operational control over the Strait of Hormuz. Second, Iran's deterrence posture will be significantly enhanced. Third, the US long-term military presence in the Gulf will be significantly reduced. Other issues said to have driven the US to attack Iran—its nuclear program, regional proxy forces, missile arsenal—will most likely remain as they were when the war began.

Even if the US withdraws, Iran will not take advantage against its neighbors. Three reasons why. First, Iran has long-term strategic interests in cooperating with Gulf neighbors, not an ongoing war. Second, Iran will have no interest in restarting a war it just successfully concluded. Third, Iran will be restrained, if restraint is needed, by its major patrons, Russia and China, both of which desire a stable and prosperous region. Iranian leaders understand this and will stop fighting.

Trump will certainly try to portray the upcoming withdrawal as a great military and strategic victory. No such claim is true. The truth is that Iran is far more sophisticated than the US understood; the decision to go to war was irrational; and the underlying technology of war has shifted against the US. The American empire cannot win a war against Iran at acceptable financial, military, and political costs. Yet what the US can regain is some degree of rationality. It is time for the US to end regime-change campaigns and return to international law and diplomacy.