One Year After the War: India and Pakistan Both Celebrate 'Victory,' but Strategic Gaps Remain

In May, streets in both Pakistan and India were adorned with banners and posters praising their military leaders as the two South Asian neighbors marked the first anniversary of a four-day air war that erupted in May 2025. Each side held events to assert that victory was theirs.

Pakistan's Air Force (PAF) held a commemoration in Rawalpindi celebrating its downing of Indian aircraft. Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to change their social media profile pictures to the logo of Operation Sindoor, the name given to the military campaign against Pakistan. In both countries, generals appeared before the media, making claims about enemy losses. The Indian Air Force stated it had destroyed 13 Pakistani aircraft and struck 11 airbases. On the Pakistani side, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry declared that his country had defeated an enemy “five times larger” and had only used “10%” of its military potential.

Analysts argue, however, that behind the public victory declarations lie critical questions about whether either side has learned from the weaknesses exposed during and after the war.

The Victory Each Side Claims

The conflict was triggered by an attack on April 22, 2025, when gunmen targeted tourists in Indian-administered Pahalgam, Kashmir, killing 26 civilians. India blamed Pakistan and launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, striking multiple targets deep inside Pakistani territory and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan retaliated with Operation Bunyan al-Marsoos.

Contrary to official claims, the conflict did not end with a clear victory for either side. Pakistan could point to its air successes, as Chinese-made J-10C fighters downed Indian aircraft, including Rafales, in the early phase of the war. India later acknowledged its aircraft losses. Pakistan also emerged with a diplomatic advantage by accepting U.S. President Donald Trump's claim that he brokered the May 10 ceasefire and subsequently nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

India, for its part, could cite other significant military outcomes. BrahMos long-range missiles struck multiple Pakistani airbases, including Nur Khan in Rawalpindi and Bholari in Sindh province. India also deployed Israeli-made drones that reached as far as Karachi and Lahore, and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a crucial water-sharing agreement between the two nations.

Analysts say both narratives contain a partial truth but are incomplete. The gap between the two accounts has consequences for how each side honestly absorbs what the conflict truly revealed.

Pakistan’s Unresolved Vulnerabilities

At a press conference in Rawalpindi, Pakistan’s military detailed its capacity enhancements over the past year, including the formal activation of the Army's Rocket and Missile Forces Command (ARFC) with new systems such as the Fatah-III supersonic cruise missile and the Fatah-V deep-strike missile system. Pakistan's defense budget increased by 20% to $9 billion. However, analysts note that despite these upgrades, Pakistan’s air defense remains its weakest point, as the Chinese-supplied HQ-9B surface-to-air missile system failed to intercept BrahMos missiles. Islamabad is now pursuing the longer-range HQ-19 missile defense system.

The BrahMos strikes reached Nur Khan, Bholari, and bases as far south as Sukkur, demonstrating that “geography no longer provides strategic depth in an era of long-range precision weapons, drones, and satellite-guided systems.”

India’s Quiet ‘Sobering’

India’s official post-conflict stance has been largely one of assertion. However, a parallel disinformation campaign played out online, allowing both sides to claim victory. India’s second-highest military official, General Anil Chauhan, was the only one to acknowledge aircraft losses but refused to provide details. Analysts argue that India’s failure to release full information is inconsistent with a democracy.

The diplomatic aftermath has also been uncomfortable for New Delhi. India insists the ceasefire was resolved bilaterally, rejecting Trump’s claim of credit, while Pakistan publicly thanked him and nominated him for a Nobel. This divergence shaped how the world interpreted the outcome, with Pakistan’s Army Chief, Marshal Asim Munir, emerging as a global peace broker.

The conditions that led to last year’s war remain unresolved. Mutual distrust and a lack of reliable communication channels mean the risk of renewed conflict is high.

The Water Front

Among all the vulnerabilities exposed, water issues appear to have attracted the least concrete policy response. India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in April 2025 and has not reinstated it. The treaty supplies over 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural water. Pakistan’s effective water storage capacity is only about 30 days, compared to 120-220 days for India. Although experts say the suspension hasn't created an immediate operational crisis, the long-term outlook is worrying. If global temperatures rise by 3-4 degrees Celsius, one-third to one-half of the region’s glaciers could disappear.

India says the treaty will remain suspended until Pakistan takes what it considers credible and irreversible steps against cross-border militant groups. But 12 months after the missile strikes, no diplomatic solution has emerged.