Yemen: Houthi missile strikes threaten supply lines as 'Yemen Dawn' campaign faces challenges

Sanaa, Yemen – A missile fired by the Houthi group (also known as Ansar Allah) traced a smoke trail across the sky over Sanaa at midday. Its target was unclear – possibly a site in Saudi Arabia or territory in the south and east held by Yemen's internationally recognized government. For people in northern Yemen, the sight of missiles launching has become familiar.

On Thursday, at least five people were killed near the al-Maashiq presidential palace in Aden after Houthi missile strikes. Yemeni Prime Minister Shaya al-Zindani was at the compound at the time of the attack but was not hurt. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the strike targeted an operational command headquarters, part of the group's campaign against fighters and equipment backed by Saudi Arabia in support of the internationally recognized government in Aden.

The Houthis' frequent missile attacks, combined with ground advances by the Iran-backed group around the southwestern city of Taiz, have cut key supply routes and threatened several roads, ports and airports that government forces depend on for resupply. These disruptions could weaken the government's 'Yemen Dawn' campaign, which aims to retake Houthi-held territory, including the capital Sanaa, which the group has held since the war began in 2014.

Government officials, however, insist supply problems will not halt the campaign, stressing that their forces can overcome logistical challenges. Colonel Wadah al-Dubaish, spokesman for the pro-government Joint Forces on Yemen's western coast, told Al Jazeera: "The Houthis always try to cut the government forces' supply lines, but they have not been able to stop the flow of supplies. So military operations against the Houthis will continue."

Still, losses over the past few months have dealt the government a significant blow. In early September, the Houthis advanced rapidly south along the Red Sea coast, capturing Mocha – an important port and supply hub for pro-government forces in western Taiz province. A government counteroffensive retook some lost territory in the southern Red Sea coastal area, but did not recover Mocha, which remains in Houthi hands.

According to al-Dubaish, Houthi attacks and ground advances may slow the transport of supplies to government military forces or raise supply costs on some fronts. "However, they cannot stop the flow of supplies because air, land and sea routes remain available, allowing supplies to keep reaching the front lines," he said.

Even so, the situation in Taiz shows the limits of that logistical flexibility. Houthi forces have cut the main road linking the city to Aden, where the internationally recognized government is headquartered. Alternative routes through the surrounding mountains have also been disrupted, leaving Taiz effectively besieged. The consequences are already clear: fuel shortages and soaring prices have hit Taiz since the Houthis' latest advances, with petrol prices tripling last week.

The loss of key supply routes also threatens the government military's ability to provide ammunition, reinforcements and other essential supplies while it faces intense and sustained Houthi attacks. Al-Dubaish argues, however, that war always brings advances and setbacks, and losing one battle does not mean losing the war. "The war is still ongoing and will not stop until the Houthis are defeated," he said.

'Logistical flexibility'

Yemeni government forces are currently fighting the Houthis on multiple fronts, including the southern Red Sea coast, around Taiz, and in Marib and al-Jawf east of Sanaa. Yemen's Deputy Justice Minister Faisal al-Majidi told Al Jazeera that government forces rely on "logistical flexibility and decentralization" to secure supply lines across the country.

"This approach divides supply lines into semi-autonomous zones, supported by nearby access points and key supply hubs – such as Shabwa, Marib, Houthi-free areas of Taiz, the Red Sea coast and the southern provinces," al-Majidi said, adding that this reduces the difficulty of moving between far-flung fronts.

"Moreover, government forces have been fighting to control high ground overlooking main roads, in order to protect vital supply arteries from shelling," he added. One of the areas where pro-government forces are concentrating is the strategic mountainous al-Waziiya district in Taiz province, which overlooks the Red Sea coast and could serve as a springboard to relieve Taiz from the west. Fighting with the Houthis in al-Waziiya continues.

Saudi Arabia's role

Saudi Arabia has stepped up support for the Yemeni government and allied forces since the 'Yemen Dawn' campaign began, acknowledging for the first time airstrikes against Houthi forces since a 2022 ceasefire. Riyadh first intervened in Yemen's conflict in 2015 to restore the Yemeni government in Sanaa.

According to al-Dubaish, Saudi Arabia's military role is a key and indispensable source of support for Yemeni government forces. "Saudi support is the decisive factor in the conflict. Without Saudi Arabia, confronting the Houthis – who possess advanced military capabilities such as Iranian-supplied ballistic and cruise missiles, along with a large fighting force – would be a very great challenge for the Yemeni government," he said.

The Saudi-led coalition says its airstrikes have destroyed hundreds of high-value targets since the start of October. Al-Majidi described Saudi air support as a "strategic balancing factor" and an essential pillar of the 'Yemen Dawn' campaign. "Saudi Arabia's role focuses on direct support for ground forces and, more importantly, on neutralizing Houthi reinforcements and targeting missile and drone launch sites – thereby minimizing their destructive impact," he said.

The Saudi-led coalition previously air-dropped weapons and ammunition to pro-government fighters in Taiz when the city was besieged in the early years of the war, but there have been no reports of similar operations since the new siege began this month.

Coordination: The real test

Saudi Arabia also plays an important role in a task that may prove even more crucial: unifying the fractious anti-Houthi camp, which still operates under fragmented command structures. Al-Dubaish argues that poor coordination among military units remains a significant challenge. "The coordination problem stems from multiple military units operating under different command structures. This fragmentation does not benefit the forces fighting the Houthis," he said.

The government's loss of the Red Sea coast in September was partly due to misaligned coordination among anti-Houthi forces, which appeared unable to respond quickly to the Houthi advance. This came despite messages from the Yemeni government earlier in the year that anti-Houthi forces were operating under a unified command structure, following the defeat of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council separatists earlier in the year.

"Coordination among the various field forces… remains the real test for the success of the Yemen Dawn campaign," al-Majidi said. Yemeni military researcher Adnan al-Jabarni told Al Jazeera that the level of coordination among government forces is improving.

"These forces are now testing their ability to coordinate, in a context where they have only recently begun operating under a unified structure – after the UAE withdrew from Yemen and the Supreme Military Committee (SMC) was established, unifying all the different branches and units," al-Jabarni said.

In January, the Presidential Leadership Council – Yemen's UN-recognized body led by President Rashad al-Alimi – established the SMC to oversee all anti-Houthi military units and integrate them into Yemen's official military under one command. However, the committee's formation has not erased long-standing divisions among forces that have historically had different command structures and funding sources, and the losses on the Red Sea coast have highlighted continuing difficulties in battlefield coordination.

That coordination is crucial for Taiz, where holding off the Houthis will depend on retaking roads to serve as supply lines. Al-Jabarni argues that tensions among pro-government forces are easing and that government supply lines remain intact despite Houthi attacks.

"The Houthis are trying to pressure Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government by targeting civilian facilities and supply lines – focusing especially on vital infrastructure – but I believe this is more likely to increase the tempo of anti-Houthi operations than to slow them," al-Jabarni said.