The Strait of Hormuz has once again become a flashpoint as Iran and the U.S. trade accusations of violating the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on June 15, particularly its Article 5 on ensuring the safety of commercial shipping. The first clashes since the agreement took effect erupted over the past weekend, leaving dozens of ships attacked or forced to reroute.
Under Article 5 of the MoU, Iran committed to making maximum efforts to ensure commercial vessels could transit the strait without paying fees for 60 days, while also removing technical and military obstacles and clearing naval mines within 30 days. Additionally, Iran was required to engage in dialogue with Oman over strait management in line with international law and the sovereignty of coastal states.
However, control of maritime traffic has become a thorny issue. Iran insists the strait falls under its jurisdiction and warns that any unilateral changes will escalate tensions. The U.S. and Gulf states, by contrast, demand freedom of navigation and oppose Tehran’s proposed tolls.
Professor Hassan Ahmadian of the University of Tehran argued that Washington is “breaking its own deal,” seeking to back out of the MoU while forcing Iran to implement it. Meanwhile, political analyst Abas Aslani in Tehran asserted that Iran views the strait as a “leverage” to deter future U.S. attacks.
Tensions escalated late last week when the Singapore-flagged vessel Ever Lovely was struck by a drone on June 27, and the Panama-flagged Kiku was hit by gunfire the following day. The U.S. retaliated with strikes against five coastal Iranian bases. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missiles and drones at U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, forcing commercial shipping to fall from 70 transits per day on June 24 to just 40 by June 28.
U.S. President Donald Trump warned he could “totally destroy” Iran if violations continue. However, defense analyst Wolfgang Pusztai assessed that the current level of fighting does not yet amount to a full-scale escalation and that “there is still a chance for a peaceful solution.”
