Trump's 'Friendship' with Kim Jong Un: A Lever to Pressure South Korea?

President Donald Trump has once again praised North Korean leader Kim Jong Un while criticizing ally South Korea for not supporting Washington in its war with Iran. This move has revived one of the most contentious diplomatic issues of his first term.

On August 18, President Trump said Kim Jong Un had responded positively to his recent outreach proposals, a day after he ordered the Pentagon to reduce the scale of joint military exercises with South Korea, which were designed to prepare for a potential war with Pyongyang.

The U.S. leader asserted that his relationship with Kim—whom he met three times during his first term—has made the Korean Peninsula "much safer." The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is urging aides to arrange a meeting with Kim as early as this fall, ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for November 3.

Analysts believe that a summit with Kim, regardless of its outcome, would be a plus for Trump, especially as the unpopular war in Iran remains unresolved and his campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine has yet to be fulfilled.

Why Are the U.S. and North Korea Drawing Closer?

In 2017, Trump threatened North Korea with "fire and fury" after reports suggested Pyongyang had built a nuclear warhead small enough to mount on a missile. By 2018, he held his first historic meeting with Kim in Singapore, where both sides agreed on the goal of "complete denuclearization" of the Korean Peninsula.

However, subsequent meetings in 2019 in Hanoi and at the inter-Korean Demilitarized Zone saw no progress, although Trump became the first and only U.S. president to set foot on North Korean soil. Since then, North Korea has expanded its missile and nuclear capabilities, continued missile tests, and established close military ties with Russia.

Yong-Chool Ha, director of the Korea Studies Center at the University of Washington, suggested that Trump may believe the Hanoi summit failed due to pressure from critics, including former National Security Advisor John Bolton. "Trump might think that this time, without such constraints, he could reach a deal with Kim," Ha said.

A Pressure Tactic on South Korea?

On the night of August 17, on his Truth Social platform, Trump suddenly announced he had ordered the Pentagon to reduce the scale of "inappropriate and hostile" military exercises with South Korea. He later linked this decision to Seoul's refusal to support the U.S. in its war with Iran. "We can't go protecting all countries, especially when they don't help us," Trump said in the Oval Office.

The 11-day Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise was aimed at preparing for a war scenario with North Korea. The U.S. stations about 28,500 troops in South Korea to bolster its defense, a legacy of the 1950-1953 war that ended with an armistice rather than a peace treaty.

Reducing the scale of the exercises creates tension for Seoul, which relies on the U.S. to deter North Korea. Pyongyang views these drills as rehearsals for an invasion.

Eugene Park, a historian of East Asia at the University of Nevada, said Trump's decision reflects a shift in Washington's strategic priorities. "The U.S. today faces greater demands on its military resources than during Trump's first term, including commitments in the Middle East and concerns about defense capabilities," he said.

Money could also be a factor. Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center's North Korea Program, suggested Trump might use the exercises as leverage "to accelerate South Korea's investment and set the stage for increasing the defense cost-sharing." Trump had previously demanded that South Korea significantly increase its contribution to the U.S. troop presence.

Economic tensions could also play a role. Trump's first term saw the renegotiation of the bilateral free trade agreement and tariffs on South Korean steel. Washington initially threatened a 25% tariff before agreeing to 15% in exchange for Seoul's investment commitments. "South Korea's lack of concrete steps to invest in the U.S., which was a condition for keeping the tariff at 15%, seems to be a major disappointment for Trump," Minyoung Lee said.

A New Chapter in U.S.-North Korea Relations?

Not necessarily, according to Minyoung Lee. North Korea does not trust the U.S. After the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran in February, Pyongyang has repeatedly described Washington as "an untrustworthy actor and a destroyer of international order."

Earlier this year, Kim made clear that a prerequisite for friendly relations is Washington's recognition of North Korea's "constitutional status"—referring to its status as a nuclear-armed state. "Even with President Trump, who is eager to meet Kim again, recognizing North Korea's nuclear status seems like a too-difficult order to fulfill," Minyoung Lee assessed.

Overall, the analyst believes Trump is using the reduction of joint exercises with South Korea to "kill two birds with one stone: pressure South Korea and remind the world, including Kim, that he still wants to re-engage with North Korea."