According to a report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) submitted to Congress on May 18, Ukraine recaptured about 400 square kilometers of territory in and around the Dnipropetrovsk region in the past quarter, the largest such recovery since late 2022.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recorded Russia’s net advance at 104 square kilometers between January 1 and May 26, 2026, a sharp drop from 1,619 square kilometers in the same period last year. Another 628 square kilometers are contested but not fully under Russian control.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian losses this year amount to 145,000 personnel, including 86,000 killed and 59,000 severely wounded. Ukraine says it has drone footage confirming individual cases. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said each square kilometer of Russian advance now costs 179 soldiers in casualties, compared with 67 last year, stressing that this rate exceeds Moscow’s current ability to recruit replacements.
Russia’s economy also faces pressure. The country breached its full-year 2026 budget deficit ceiling in April alone and had to sell 27.9 tonnes of gold reserves (worth more than $4 billion) – the lowest reserve level since the full-scale conflict erupted in February 2022.
Ukraine is expanding its 'Logistical Lockdown' campaign, using drones and medium-range artillery to destroy Russian supply lines, blocking reinforcements and equipment from reaching the front. On May 21, Russia-appointed Kherson Governor Vladimir Saldo restricted movement on the M-14 highway linking Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Melitopol due to repeated attacks.
On the air war, Sweden announced on May 28 that it would supply Ukraine with 16 Gripen fighter jets and allow the purchase of 20 more under a $2.9 billion EU-backed loan package. President Zelensky said the Gripens, armed with Meteor missiles having a range of over 200 km, would help push back Russian aircraft and counter glide bombs – a weapon Russia is dropping about 3,000 times per week.
Ukraine continued striking Russian oil facilities. On May 23, a storage depot and loading terminal at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea was attacked, setting an oil tanker ablaze. The next day, the Tamanneftegaz terminal also came under attack. Military-industrial targets such as the Metafrax chemical plant in Perm, 1,700 km from the border, and the Taganrog air base in Rostov also sustained damage.
On May 24, Russia launched 600 long-range drones and 90 missiles (including 36 ballistic missiles) at Kyiv. Ukraine shot down 91 percent of the drones and 81 percent of the cruise missiles; 19 missiles likely missed their targets. Strikes hit the Foreign Ministry, the Cabinet building, two museums, and a food market, wounding 87 people and killing 2.
Russia described this as retaliation for an attack on a Russian-controlled college in Luhansk two days earlier. President Putin called it a 'terrorist attack on a dormitory' that killed 6 students and wounded 39. Ukraine’s General Staff said the real target was a drone technology center belonging to Russia’s Rubikon force.
On May 25, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told US counterpart Marco Rubio that Russia would strike 'military targets' in Kyiv, including facilities for designing and producing drones with NATO expert support, and warned foreign citizens and diplomats to leave the city. Moscow also confirmed using the intermediate-range Oreshnik ballistic missile in the May 24 attack – its newest missile system, now deployed to Belarus.
