Russian President Vladimir Putin touched down in Beijing on Tuesday evening, with the official agenda of joining Chinese President Xi Jinping in marking 25 years of the two nations’ Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation. But analysts say the Xi-Putin summit, expected Wednesday morning, carries far deeper significance, especially its timing.
Putin's visit was announced just one day after US President Donald Trump left China following his summit with Xi. Though Trump touted trade deals, there was little evidence of substantial progress between the US and China on the most contentious issues, including Taiwan and the US-Israel war against Iran.
Analysts say this works in Putin’s favor, allowing him to arrive in Beijing confident that China has no plans to downplay its relationship with Russia. For Beijing, hosting two leaders back-to-back is a testament to its growing diplomatic leverage, positioning China as a central power able to engage rival major powers on its own terms.
Strategic Depth
Bound by Western sanctions and a shared view that President Trump's foreign policy is reckless, Putin and Xi have forged a close partnership in recent years. Analysts expect no major shifts during the Russian leader’s visit.
“I don’t think there will be a big change,” Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher in defense studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera. “It will be an tightening of bilateral relations in economic cooperation, trade, military technology exchanges, and other areas.”
Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at Crisis Group, agreed. “The relationship between the two countries is strategic – they are partners, strategic partners, but not military allies and I don’t think they will go further than that,” he said. “The Russia-China relationship is very stable, very important for both countries, and there is no negative agenda in this relationship.”
Both sides are expected to push joint projects, particularly in energy. China wants access to Russia’s energy resources “at discounted prices,” while Russia depends on Chinese dual-use technology, especially for drone production.
Yet the meeting is more crucial for Putin. “Putin needs this more than Xi. Russia is now the dependent, subordinate partner after the disastrous war in Ukraine. Putin may be seeking increased military support from China,” noted Timothy Ash, associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House. “Like Trump arriving in Beijing cap in hand, Putin is doing the same. China holds all the cards.”
The ‘Neutral Superpower’ Role
The back-to-back summits reveal something about Beijing’s broader diplomatic posture. China is trying to position itself as a mediator, a neutral player in a fragmenting international order. “China is trying not to be overtly aligned with any superpower, though in reality China is much closer to Russia,” Miron said. “In diplomacy, they are trying to show neutrality as a neutral superpower.”
The backdrop is the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran, a conflict that has rattled global energy markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Miron argued Russia benefits from disruption in the short term as Gulf energy rivals are sidelined. However, analysts agree long-term stability also matters to Russia, with both countries wanting to see the conflict end, even though they have shared intelligence and technology with Iran.
Ash noted Moscow will be pleased with what the Trump-Xi summit did not achieve. “China didn’t give Trump what he wanted – an end to the Iran war. Moscow will be happy Beijing didn’t abandon Tehran or Moscow.”
Russia’s war in Ukraine will certainly be discussed, but analysts do not predict China will pressure Moscow for concrete results. “Ukraine will be discussed, and China will certainly say it supports mediation and peace talks,” Miron said. “But China also doesn’t want to see Russia humiliated in any way. I don’t think it will be an ultimatum.”
The visit may not yield profound diplomatic outcomes, but it makes one thing clear: Beijing, by hosting the US president one day and the Russian leader the next, has made itself an inescapable factor on the global stage.
