US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz as ship attacks escalate

Dozens of ships have been attacked in October in the Strait of Hormuz as the US and Iran continue to vie for influence over one of the world's most important shipping lanes. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), at least 12 ships were attacked in the week ending October 16 alone, though the agency acknowledged that the true figure is difficult to pin down.

"UKMTO is struggling to accurately report the actual number of attacks because the majority of vessels attacked decline to provide information to UKMTO," the agency said, noting that additional incidents had been noted through other sources but could not be verified for lack of data. October is recorded as the month with the highest number of ship attacks since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February.

Of the 12 confirmed attacks, half of the vessels continued to their destination or reached port. One ship sank, two were disabled, and three were damaged or had an undetermined outcome. UKMTO also recorded a new form of attack on Saturday, when the master of an oil tanker reported that the vessel was hit by grenades fired from a small boat about 78 nautical miles northeast of the Saudi city of Jubail, damaging the port quarter at the stern.

Oil flows through Hormuz fall sharply

In recent months, the US has managed to increase the amount of energy shipped through the Strait of Hormuz and nearby routes thanks to a transshipment system coordinated with Arab states. However, volumes have fluctuated week to week as Iranian attacks have increased. According to Kpler data, oil flows through Hormuz reached 11.6 million barrels per day in the seven days to October 13, roughly 68% of the pre-war level of 17.1 million bpd.

On Friday, the price of Brent crude touched $110 a barrel for the first time since May as the attacks continued. The situation has been further strained by Iran-backed Houthi forces attacking Saudi energy infrastructure and controlling the Bab al-Mandeb strait, along with fears of an escalation in the US-Iran conflict.

US and Iran issue conflicting claims

US military officials have a markedly different assessment of the situation in Hormuz, a shipping lane that before the war carried about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows. The commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), Brad Cooper, said in a video on Friday that despite Iranian attacks, 400 ships and 100 million barrels of oil had passed through the strait over the past week.

"To be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and its regional partners, not Iran," Cooper said, attributing the surge in attacks to the "desperation" of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The US military also said it was continuing its naval blockade of Iran's southern ports, alleging that the blockade had cost Tehran $25 billion in oil export revenue and that the US had recently seized $350 million in Iranian cryptocurrency assets.

According to UKMTO, total port departures over the past seven days numbered 125 and arrivals 129, mostly dry bulk carriers, followed by oil product tankers and general cargo ships. Tehran has not published precise figures on the number of ships attacked or passing through Hormuz, but says Washington is inflating the numbers to portray its naval campaign as a success.

Two ships hit mines this week

The reports come as two ships were reportedly struck by mines in the Strait of Hormuz this week, with conflicting accounts from the US and Iran. The IRGC has increasingly reported ships hitting mines along the strategic waterway and says the area is unsafe for vessels that do not coordinate with Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority, an agency set up during the war to manage Hormuz traffic.

The latest claim came on Saturday, when the IRGC said a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude had caught fire after hitting a mine on an "unauthorized" route. Iran's state broadcaster Press TV shared footage said to show the burning vessel. CENTCOM, however, said it had cleared mines from the strait and that ships were being hit by projectiles.

The most recent incident the US military has "verified" was on Thursday, when it said the commercial container ship M/V GFS Pride was struck by an IRGC projectile rather than a mine as Iran claimed. The vessel sank while being towed ashore.

Prospects for escalation after the midterms

The US has so far not responded to the recent ship attacks, but there are concerns that Washington could escalate the war after the November 3 midterm elections. Diplomacy has not entirely stalled, with regional mediators including Pakistan, Qatar and others continuing to carry messages between the two sides, but no breakthrough is expected in the near term.

According to US media, President Donald Trump is said to have directed the military to be ready to launch larger strikes after the election, possibly including the use of the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, also known as the "mother of all bombs."

Tehran, meanwhile, is signaling that it will continue its attacks. Acting Defense Minister Majid Ibn Reza said on Saturday that Iran's missiles, not American bombs, would decide the future of the war. "Your bombs will explode elsewhere: in your global credibility, the American economy and even your election calculations," he was quoted as saying by state media.