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Japan's Nikkei index jumped over 4% on Monday, driven by hopes for a Middle East peace deal. The rally was led by energy and shipping stocks, with analysts citing potential benefits from lower oil prices and reduced inflation. Foreign investor participation was notably strong.
The World Bank has cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, citing the US-Iran conflict driving up energy prices and inflation. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted oil and gas supply chains, pushing Brent crude prices up 36% and global inflation to 4%. The bank warns growth could fall to 1.3% if disruptions worsen, with developing nations hit hardest.
The Strait of Hormuz was completely blockaded today after US airstrikes struck Iranian military targets. In response, Iran shut down all maritime traffic through the strait, causing a sharp spike in global oil prices and raising fears of a severe energy supply disruption.
Iran launched missiles into northern Israel, and Israel retaliated with airstrikes on radar, an oil refinery, and military bases in Iran. The Houthi rebels also fired missiles into Israel and banned Israeli ships from the Red Sea. The exchange threatened to unravel a fragile ceasefire between Iran and the US and Israel.
Marking 100 days since the US and Israel launched their military campaign against Iran, the conflict has killed more than 7,000 people, displaced over 4 million, and severely disrupted global trade as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The war has hit energy markets hard, with Brent crude spiking from $70 to near $120 a barrel, and 146 countries reporting gasoline price increases. Despite a brief ceasefire, negotiations remain stalled and sporadic fighting continues.
The Indonesian rupiah hit a record low against the US dollar, breaching 18,000 as the energy shock from the Iran war pressures Southeast Asia's largest economy. The currency touched 18,028 per dollar on Thursday despite central bank efforts, driven by high dollar demand from surging oil prices and a narrowing trade surplus.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that rising global oil prices could drive prolonged inflation, not just a temporary spike. He said sustained high oil costs would directly impact consumer prices and inflation expectations. The BOJ is closely monitoring the situation as persistent inflation may force a policy rethink.
Thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ tăng gần mức kỷ lục, giá dầu lao dốc mạnh khi giới đầu tư đặt cược vào khả năng Mỹ và Iran sắp đạt được thỏa thuận ngừng bắn, mở lại eo biển Hormuz. Nhà Trắng bác bỏ thông tin tài liệu sơ bộ từ Iran, nhưng các tuyên bố từ Tổng thống Trump cho thấy hai bên có thể gần đạt thỏa thuận hơn bao giờ hết.
The crisis at the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil and cargo shipping routes, threatens to spike global food prices and trigger a food security emergency. Disruptions there impact not only energy supplies but also fertilizer and grain supply chains, severely endangering import-dependent nations.
