Is Iran Charging Tolls on Oil Tankers Passing Through the Strait of Hormuz?

Middle East oil exports have rebounded above pre-war levels, surpassing the figures recorded before the US-Israeli campaign against Iran began in February, despite Tehran's efforts to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and attack shipping.

According to preliminary data from maritime tracking firm Kpler, crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on four days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels per day. Before the war, exports averaged around 18 million barrels per day.

The increase is largely attributed to US warships escorting tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz, along with a rise in ship-to-ship transfers at sea to reduce the risk of being targeted by Iranian missiles and drones. Meanwhile, analysts say oil prices remain elevated because of high insurance premiums — driven by fears of Iranian attacks — and because the market is pricing in the possibility of renewed conflict.

However, a senior Kpler expert last week offered a different explanation for why exports have risen while prices stay high. According to her, Gulf states may be paying Iran to move their oil through the strait — handing Tehran a significant share of the cargo's value.

Before the war, one-fifth of the world's exported oil and natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

What does the Kpler expert say?

Michelle Brohard, Kpler's head of policy and geopolitical risk, recently suggested that some countries may be paying Iran to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

"I suspect there's a fee being paid that allows these ships to pass back and forth safely," she said in an interview last week with energy expert Rory Johnston.

"I also suspect that these countries know that US escorts are not sustainable, and that paying Iran 10 or 20 percent of the cargo is not sustainable either," she added.

"So you start to see what I call a race to get cargo out as much and as fast as possible before the war resumes."

The claim has not been independently verified, and Brohard presented it as speculation rather than a conclusion based on evidence.

But as early as March, the shipping publication Lloyd's List reported that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had imposed a "toll booth" system to control vessel traffic through the strait.

The Trump administration repeatedly stated throughout the war that Iran would not be allowed to charge tolls in any potential deal with Washington.

The closure of the strait sent global fuel costs soaring and strained agricultural sectors around the world.

What does traffic through Hormuz look like now?

Maritime trackers indicate that more and more oil is being moved out of the Middle East.

In the final week of September, the seven-day average surpassed the roughly 18 million barrels per day recorded before the US-Israeli campaign against Iran began in February — the first time since the conflict started.

Kpler said crude exports excluding Iran also recovered to at least 16.5 million barrels per day on average in September.

The upward export trend continued into October. Iraq's State Oil Company announced on Saturday that it had shipped two million barrels of crude aboard a very large crude carrier (VLCC) through the Strait of Hormuz, which its director general described as the company's first such operation in decades.

According to Kpler, "40 percent now goes around Hormuz, and most of the crude passing through the strait is transferred offshore," with the bulk flowing through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Export figures also include supply shipped via the Red Sea, which is becoming an increasingly important alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz.

Moreover, Kpler's data does not count vessels that may have passed through the key shipping lane with their automatic identification systems switched off to avoid detection.

Iran, however, rejects suggestions that it has lost control of the sea route.

Senior IRGC commander Ali Fadavi said on Sunday that only three to four million barrels per day travel along the US-supervised route, describing that figure as "insignificant" compared with pre-war traffic.

Before the war broke out seven months ago, the strait typically saw around 125 large commercial vessels a day, including oil tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers and container ships.

Where are oil prices now?

Oil prices eased slightly as Middle East exports recovered. Last week, the G7 also announced a decision to release 100 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves.

But crude prices remain significantly higher than before the war. Brent traded at around $101.59 a barrel on Monday, down 0.71 percent, while US WTI fell 1.2 percent to about $90.05.

"Even though exports from the region have recovered, much will depend on the security of energy supply in the longer term," said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, noting that "the situation remains tense."

"The Strait of Hormuz remains a major flashpoint, with the attack on another tanker on Sunday keeping fears simmering about further supply disruptions, especially if shipping companies become increasingly reluctant to risk sending vessels through this crucial chokepoint."

On Monday, a tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz was ordered by the IRGC to turn back or face being targeted, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which monitors maritime traffic.

Is there any basis for the Kpler expert's claim?

Scholar Abdul Khalique argues that while Kpler analyst Brohard's speculation about a transit fee arrangement may be "plausible," it is best described as "an informal security mechanism rather than a formal maritime toll."

"There is no public evidence confirming a systematic, state-run toll system by Iran," Khalique, head of the Liverpool John Moores University Centre for Maritime Studies, told Al Jazeera.

He said the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) protects the right of transit through international straits, "making formal fees legally dubious."

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, told Al Jazeera that the scenario Brohard suspects is "partly" plausible.

"Everything seems to be happening quietly in the Middle East, from US escorts to Iran quietly collecting fees," he told Al Jazeera.

In September, the US government also imposed sanctions on a digital asset company, BitBank, which it said was used by Iran's Hormuz Safe Maritime Services Agency — established by the government to charge fees for safe passage through the strait — to transfer money back to Tehran.

However, Beauchamp said the biggest challenge for oil exports today is what he calls a "shipping problem."

"The shuttle system in the Gulf is doing a very good job of getting oil out, but it requires a lot of ships, and that drives up freight rates while reducing supply outside the region," he added.

According to Beauchamp, Asian buyers are also having to source crude from farther afield, "lengthening voyage times."

"It used to be a supply story, now it's a story about basic shipping logistics. Less glamorous, but arguably far more important and harder to solve," he said.

"You can't build ships overnight."