June 7 marks 100 days since the United States and Israel began their military campaign against Iran – a war President Donald Trump once said would be over “very quickly.” Despite a ceasefire agreement on April 8, the Strait of Hormuz remains nearly shut, sporadic fighting continues, and successive rounds of talks have collapsed.
Preliminary tallies show at least 7,090 people have died in 100 days of conflict: 3,593 in Lebanon, 3,468 in Iran, 29 in Gulf states, along with 26 Israelis and 13 US soldiers killed in Iranian retaliatory attacks. Notably, the death toll in Lebanon has now surpassed that of Iran, which was the original target of the campaign.
Israel occupies one-fifth of Lebanon
Despite a separate ceasefire in Lebanon taking effect on April 17, Israel has continued to strike the country’s south. More than one million Lebanese have been displaced. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam described Israel’s actions as a policy of “scorched earth and collective punishment.” As of June 1, Israeli forces have advanced to the outskirts of Nabatieh, captured Beaufort Castle, and now control roughly one-fifth of Lebanese territory – equivalent to 2,000 square kilometers. This marks the deepest incursion into Lebanon in over 25 years.
In the first two weeks of the war, more than three million Iranians were also displaced as US and Israeli airstrikes destroyed key infrastructure and residential areas.
Strait of Hormuz: from 100 ships a day to 7
The Strait of Hormuz – a vital artery carrying one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas – is virtually paralyzed. Ship tracking data shows only 607 vessels passed through the strait from February 28 to May 31, an average of 7 per day, down sharply from 100 per day before the war. The US also imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports starting in mid-April, further disrupting maritime trade.
146 countries see gasoline price hikes
Energy markets have been rocked. Brent crude oil surged from around $70 a barrel before the war to nearly $120, before easing to about $100. The International Energy Agency described this as the biggest energy shock in history. According to statistics, 146 countries have registered gasoline price increases since late February. Asian nations that import 60% of their oil from the Gulf have been hardest hit: prices in Myanmar rose more than 90%, Nigeria over 50%, and Peru 40%. Food prices have also climbed due to higher fertilizer and transport costs.
Stock markets swing wildly
The S&P 500 fell 9.1% through the end of March, while European and Asian markets dropped even more due to their reliance on Gulf oil. However, driven by a wave of investment in artificial intelligence, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have since set new records this year. Analysts warn of a global recession risk if energy prices remain elevated.
Talks stalled
A two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan took effect on April 8, but Israel broke it with more than 100 airstrikes on Lebanon just hours later. Negotiations held in Islamabad on April 11-12 collapsed over disagreements on Iran’s nuclear program. Iran offered a counter-proposal, but President Trump called it “garbage” and warned the ceasefire was “on life support.” The US immediately announced a naval blockade on Iranian vessels.
According to analyst Omar Rahman of the Middle East Council for Foreign Affairs, Iran does not trust the US or President Trump to honor any agreement. Trump’s approval rating now stands at 40.3%, down significantly from before the campaign against Iran began.
