US Pressures Lebanon, Israel Leaders for Talks, Risking Internal Strife

Beirut, Lebanon – As fighting persists in southern Lebanon, pressure mounts on President Joseph Aoun to hold a face-to-face meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — a move that could inflame internal tensions within the country.

While no date has been set, President Aoun is expected to visit the White House in late May, one month after the first direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon in decades, which have sharply divided Lebanese public opinion.

The decision to enter direct talks with Israel has particularly angered Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group and political party. Hezbollah seeks to end the war but supports indirect negotiations to achieve that goal and to demand an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.

Analysts say internal divisions in Lebanon make it highly unlikely that President Aoun will meet Mr. Netanyahu in Washington, as such a meeting would lack broad support from Lebanon's diverse communities.

“The push for an Aoun–Netanyahu summit comes from Washington's timeline and desire for a visible outcome,” said Dania Arayssi, a senior analyst at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, speaking to Al Jazeera. “The April 26 ceasefire expires on May 17; the U.S. Embassy in Beirut has publicly conditioned American support on this meeting, and the Trump administration wants an Abraham Accords-style photo op, viewing Lebanon as the next domino after the ceasefire with Iran.”

Israeli Provocations

Israel launched its war on Lebanon in October 2023, one day after the Gaza conflict began. A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was reached in November 2024, but Israel has continued periodic attacks on Lebanon, violating the truce more than 10,000 times over 15 months.

Hezbollah finally retaliated on March 2, after the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, two days earlier.

Israel invaded Lebanon, systematically destroying towns and villages in the south. Since March 2, Israeli attacks have killed nearly 2,700 people, including more than 100 medical workers. Over 1.2 million people have been displaced by Israeli assaults, with evacuation orders still in effect.

Despite a ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on April 16, Israel and Hezbollah continue to clash, primarily on Israeli-occupied Lebanese territory.

To stop the war and end Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, the Lebanese government agreed to direct negotiations with the Israeli government, with the United States as mediator. However, these talks take place between Lebanon's and Israel's ambassadors to the U.S., not senior officials.

For its part, Israel demands that the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah to protect northern Israeli towns from attacks.

Some Lebanese government officials argue that efforts to disarm Hezbollah are hindered by Israeli ceasefire violations and attacks. The Lebanese government declared Hezbollah's military operations illegal as of March 2.

Israel has tried to exploit existing sectarian divisions in Lebanon during this year's attacks, in part by stoking tensions between Lebanon's Shia community — where Hezbollah draws most of its support — and other religious groups.

These sectarian tensions have recently boiled over. In one incident, a Lebanese television station aired a cartoon mockingly depicting Hezbollah fighters and leader Naim Qassem as characters from the video game “Angry Birds.” Some Hezbollah supporters responded by sharing insulting images of the Maronite patriarch.

Analysts say that President Aoun — a Maronite Christian — shaking hands with Mr. Netanyahu, who recently posted a video of Israeli forces destroying southern Lebanese territory, would be seen as a further provocation by many Lebanese.

“An image of President Aoun shaking Netanyahu's hand would have very negative consequences in Lebanon,” said Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of a book on Hezbollah, speaking to Al Jazeera.

No Regional Backing

However, the likelihood of such a meeting appears to be fading.

President Aoun himself has said the timing is not right to meet Netanyahu.

“First we must reach a security agreement and stop Israeli attacks on us before raising the question of a meeting between us,” the Lebanese president declared on Monday.

Domestically, the issue enjoys little support. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close Hezbollah ally, said negotiations with Israel cannot begin before the war ends, while Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said Lebanon cannot negotiate while under attack.

“Aoun's hesitation reflects his lack of the domestic consensus needed to legitimize a presidential summit while Israel still occupies positions inside Lebanon, attacks continue, and a million people remain displaced,” Ms. Arayssi said.

The situation might have been different “if the ceasefire had been better maintained and images of destruction had not continued, including the destruction of churches and Christian villages,” said Nadim Houry of the Paris-based Arab Reform Initiative.

But without broader consensus, Mr. Houry said he does not believe Aoun will agree to meet Netanyahu.

“Aoun lacks clear regional backing, and it's not just Hezbollah opposed,” Mr. Houry told Al Jazeera. “I don't see [Aoun] committing political suicide at this point when there's nothing to gain. The conditions aren't there.”

The pressure appears to come from the United States, where, despite launching a war on Iran that has engulfed much of the region, President Trump frequently cites his peacemaking record.

“The Trump administration risks acting too quickly to get that photo of President Aoun meeting and shaking hands with Netanyahu at the White House,” Mr. Blanford said. “The Americans should slow down a bit. They must understand the complex realities in Lebanon. And images matter a lot.”

Recently, when asked about a direct meeting between Aoun and Netanyahu, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa dismissed the sensitivities surrounding the issue. Mr. Issa said he believed it would be beneficial if Aoun presented his terms and Netanyahu listened.

However, analysts say some within the U.S. administration recognize the sensitivity of forcing such a meeting between Israel and Lebanon.

“Some people in the U.S. administration realize that such a meeting would destabilize Lebanon, and they acknowledge it's not a good idea at this time, given the ongoing situation, attacks, and destruction in Lebanon,” Mr. Houry said.

No Saudi Support

Lack of support for this move is not only domestic but also regional.

Saudi officials have held meetings in recent weeks with President Aoun and Speaker Berri, aiming to build consensus among Lebanese figures and a unified Lebanese stance. Saudi Arabia has tried to align Lebanon with the broader Arab position of not normalizing relations with Israel until a clear path to a Palestinian state exists.

“Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are not enthusiastic about [a direct leaders' meeting] at this point,” Mr. Houry said. “They certainly want a ceasefire in Lebanon, but they don't want Lebanon to move toward direct negotiations with Israel via a meeting between Benjamin Netanyahu and Joseph Aoun while they oppose it.”

Ultimately, domestic and regional factors are preventing a direct meeting that could inflame Lebanon's internal tensions. Any such meeting can only happen after certain issues are resolved.

“It's a multi-layered puzzle,” Mr. Houry said. “I don't see, in the current context, Aoun meeting Netanyahu one-on-one at this stage.”