Yemen government forces launch major offensive targeting Sanaa and Bab al-Mandeb strait

Forces loyal to Yemen's internationally recognised government said on 5 October they had made gains along the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait, after Rashad al-Alimi, head of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council, announced the launch of a large-scale military campaign to retake all territory that has fallen to the Houthis.

According to a statement by the forces, units advanced north along the Red Sea coast and said they had regained control of the town of Dhubab and the port city of Mocha. Earlier, they said they had launched a "strategic offensive" aimed at the Houthi-held capital, Sanaa.

The government forces are also trying to reverse gains the Houthis made in recent days around the key southwestern city of Taiz.

The Houthis, a movement widely seen as linked to Iran, seized the capital Sanaa in September 2014 and later expanded their control across northern and western Yemen. After four years of relative calm, fighting broke out again in early July, followed by a Houthi offensive in early September that won the group swathes of territory along the Red Sea coast, including the port city of Mocha and Bab al-Mandeb.

The Saudi-backed Yemeni government is now trying to retake the territory it lost, but still faces divisions within the anti-Houthi camp.

"The government's [internationally recognised] ground forces are on paper large and quite formidable, but they are spread across multiple fronts and operate with pre-war equipment, so they can hold defensive lines but [currently] cannot push the Houthis out of their mountain strongholds," Yemen analyst Raiman al-Hamdani, who is based in London, told Al Jazeera.

According to al-Hamdani, the latest fighting suggests the conflict may be entering a new phase of escalation.

"All of this seems to be moving towards a more dangerous phase, and while the desire to wage an all-out war may exist among some leadership elements on both sides, the reality is far more complicated," al-Hamdani said.

"In the long term, the more likely outcome is not one side being militarily destroyed by the other, but a negotiated, albeit imperfect, political settlement in which the Houthis retain significant influence in northern Yemen, Saudi Arabia secures greater security guarantees, and Yemen's rival political-military factions are forced into some form of power-sharing," he added.

"The problem is that reaching that point may require another serious phase of escalation before any agreement is possible."

Government seizes the initiative

Al Jazeera correspondent Ahmed al-Shalafi, who covers Yemen, said the government's recent moves showed "full operational and political coordination".

"These steps give seriousness and decisiveness to the announced battle to liberate Sanaa and restore the state," he said.

According to al-Shalafi, the government's campaign is meant to start the confrontation on its own terms, rather than letting the Houthis dictate the phases of the war.

Even if the United States and Iran reach a deal to end their current conflict, which began in late February, that may not significantly affect the fighting in Yemen.

Independent Yemen analyst Nicholas Brumfield told Al Jazeera he believed the balance of power had yet to tilt to either side.

"The Houthis will continue to apply pressure in Taiz and Marib," he said. "The [government] forces defend better in Taiz... But the Houthis are capable of attacking in all directions at once in a way the [government] forces cannot."

However, Saeed Thabet, head of Al Jazeera's Yemen bureau, said the government's advances, coming shortly after al-Alimi announced the launch of a new large-scale campaign against the Houthis, were a way of proving the government is serious about reversing Houthi gains.

"The military expansion is a message that the government is determined to carry out what it announced," Thabet said. "Previously, many Yemenis did not take these statements seriously."

"Government forces will now try to... control the Red Sea coast of Taiz," he added. "They will also try to prevent the Houthis from infiltrating some villages and areas in Taiz province, especially in the al-Shamayatayn and al-Waziya districts. Sources there told us that government security forces are sweeping these areas and arresting a number of [Houthi] gunmen."