Fears of full-scale war in Yemen as Houthi attacks escalate

A series of Houthi attacks in recent weeks, described as the bloodiest in years, has raised fears that Yemen could slip back into full-scale war as conflict spreads across the Middle East.

The 2022 ceasefire ended intense fighting between the Iran-backed Houthi forces and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces that had lasted since September 2014. However, a series of clashes over the past month between the two sides, escalating sharply in the last two weeks, have caused civilian and military casualties and threaten to reignite war.

Latest attack developments

Houthi forces have killed several civilians in attacks targeting the government-held port of al-Makha (also known as Mocha) on Yemen's western coast. Last week, a commercial vessel was attacked in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, killing six people and wounding ten, according to Yemeni coast guard forces. The Houthis claimed the ship was carrying weapons.

Earlier, the Houthis used drones and rockets to target Yemeni government military bases in the east, killing at least 30 government soldiers. The group also attacked Saudi Aramco's Jazan oil refinery.

In response, Rashad al-Alimi, head of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), said the internationally recognized government would not accept "a new ceasefire that repeats previous experiences." He said, "No action by the Houthi militia will go unanswered or be ignored," according to Yemen's Saba news agency. However, he also left the door open for a political settlement, saying the Houthis could still "lay down their arms, join political life, and compete through the ballot on an equal footing with all Yemenis."

Causes of tension

The Houthis seized the capital Sanaa in 2014 and have since fought the government for control of the country. Although the intensity of the war decreased significantly after the 2022 ceasefire, no comprehensive peace agreement has been signed.

The fragile status quo has come under increasing pressure since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28. On July 13, Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces attacked Sanaa airport, reportedly to prevent an Iranian plane carrying a Houthi delegation from landing. The government accuses Iran of arming the Houthis.

The Houthis responded by firing missiles toward Saudi Arabia. On July 20, the group declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening oil shipments heading to the Red Sea and attacking Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu.

Saudi Arabia shifts approach

As attacks have increased, Saudi Arabia has begun taking a more proactive approach to its security, both in Yemen and the region, according to experts. Some analysts say the possibility that the Houthis could ultimately block Bab al-Mandeb – the narrow strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean – may have prompted Saudi to change its strategy.

Saudi Arabia was previously less affected by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz thanks to the East-West pipeline that carries oil from eastern fields to the Red Sea, bypassing the strait. If the Houthis severely restrict shipping through Bab al-Mandeb, the Red Sea route of one of the world's largest oil exporters would be threatened.

Last month, Riyadh announced a new international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks. Dozens of countries were invited, with 13 agreeing to join. Saudi Arabia has also strengthened security ties with Pakistan and Turkey through new joint defense agreements and is coordinating more closely with Washington.

Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman recently met U.S. Vice President JD Vance amid reports that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has received American support for potential military action against the Houthis. In Yemen, the shift is more pronounced as Saudi intervened against the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) late last year, helping unite the anti-Houthi coalition around the Yemeni government.

Professor Simon Mabon of Lancaster University in the UK said Saudi policy on this issue has changed significantly: "After years of trying to de-escalate and move toward a deal with the Houthis, Riyadh appears to have concluded that approach is no longer viable. Saudi's concerns become especially acute because the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz increases the importance of alternate oil routes and shipping via the Red Sea."

Instead of trying to completely defeat the Houthis and retake Sanaa, Mabon said Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government now focus on pushing Houthi forces back from the coast: "That is a marked change from what we have seen before."

Could Pakistan and Turkey be drawn in?

The potential Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey deal increases the risk of further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Al Jazeera correspondent Yousef Mawry in Sanaa said the latest attacks have been interpreted by some experts as a direct challenge to the new defense pact.

Pakistan is directly affected by the recent escalation. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said three Pakistanis were killed and one injured in a Houthi attack on a ship in the Red Sea. He said, "Pakistan strongly condemns the Houthi attack on a non-combatant commercial vessel," adding that the government was contacting Saudi and Yemeni authorities. However, experts say the defense pact does not mean Pakistani or Turkish troops will go to war in Yemen on behalf of their ally. Security analyst Wolfgang Pusztai told Al Jazeera that the agreement currently only "is a signature on paper."

Iran's role

Iran has long built a so-called "axis of resistance" comprising governments and groups opposed to Israel and the U.S., including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, armed groups in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis have supported Iran since late March with attacks toward northern Israel and threats to expand operations in the Red Sea.

Last month, Iran reportedly asked the Houthis to prepare to close the Red Sea oil route if the U.S. attacked Iran's electricity infrastructure. A Houthi-aligned source told Reuters that missiles and drones have been deployed near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on Yemen's highlands overlooking Hodeidah and the Gulf of Aden.

Mohammed Albasha, a Yemeni-American analyst and former spokesman for the Yemeni embassy in Washington, said the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia should be understood in the broader U.S.-Iran confrontation: "By threatening Saudi shipping there, the Houthis can increase pressure on both Riyadh and Washington, while supporting Iran in its broader confrontation with the U.S."

Risk of full-scale war

Analysts say the key question is whether the latest attacks aim to pressure the Saudi and Yemeni governments, or whether the Houthis believe they are seizing the initiative in a potential ground war. The Houthis accuse Saudi Arabia of using al-Makha port to boost supplies for government forces and believe Riyadh and its Yemeni allies are preparing an attack on Houthi-controlled territory.

Nadwa Al-Dawsari, a fellow at the Middle East Institute, said those concerns may be driving the current escalation: "Since January, there has been significant progress in unifying the command of Yemeni government forces. Government forces have also shown growing air capabilities, conducting airstrikes and drone attacks on Houthi missile launchers."

According to her, "the Houthis' goal in this escalation is to disrupt these preparations before government forces are ready, degrade their capabilities, and force them onto the defensive." Ultimately, the Houthis are trying to set the rules of the coming confrontation so that "if escalation happens, it takes place on their terms."

Although a Saudi-led ground attack is uncertain, the Houthis have proven over the past decade that they cannot be defeated by airpower alone, Mabon said. "Yemen's mountainous terrain makes a ground campaign extremely difficult, while Riyadh is reluctant to get stuck again in a protracted war."

A Saudi-backed offensive led by Yemeni government forces remains more feasible than Saudi deploying large-scale infantry. The consequences of major ground fighting between the two sides would certainly make civilians suffer the most: "Amid all this, the tragedy is that the Yemeni people are paying the price. Not long ago Yemen faced one of the worst humanitarian crises since World War II. People are struggling, and continued fighting would make things much worse," Mabon said.