Iran Ramps Up War-Cost Messaging Ahead of US Midterms
Ali Harb, Al Jazeera English
Iran is intensifying outreach to the American public ahead of the US midterms, highlighting rising fuel prices and economic strain caused by the war. Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, are targeting US officials with messages about inflation. The IRGC has accused President Trump of lying about the war's costs and the US economy, while analysts say Tehran aims to raise the political price of the conflict regardless of the election outcome.
Ahead of the US midterm elections, Iran is intensifying its messaging aimed at the American public, stressing the cost of the war that the United States and Israel launched against it. Iranian officials have posted articles on state-affiliated media focusing on the war's negative impact on oil prices and the US economy.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has also been actively targeting US officials over the costs of escalation and military spending. On Wednesday, Ghalibaf shared an article about US inflation rising to 3.7 percent last month, along with a collage of negative headlines about the US economy. The post also included a comic strip from the Road Runner cartoons depicting Wile E. Coyote building a faulty catapult that sends a large boulder flying back at him.
"Play by the percentages. Not the betting odds, but the percentage increases," Ghalibaf wrote in a message to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading the sanctions campaign against Iran. The remark alludes to rising inflation, underscoring that the cost of living keeps climbing because of the war despite Bessent's claims.
A few days earlier, Ghalibaf also shared an image of a ghost shaped like a bell curve, with diesel prices rising while housing affordability and consumer confidence fall.
Since the war began on February 28, Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices soaring. In the US, diesel prices hit an all-time record of $6.33 a gallon (3.8 liters), according to the American Automobile Association, and gasoline stood at $4.33, up from under $3 before the war.
Iran has stepped up attacks on vessels around the strait in recent days, after President Trump and his aides repeatedly insisted that the waterway is under US control.
The surge in energy prices has pushed up headline inflation across the economy, prompting the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates last month, at a time when Trump is calling for rate cuts to stimulate economic activity.
In a letter to the American public on September 29, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused Trump of lying about the cost of the war and the state of the US economy, rejecting the president's claim that oil prices would soon fall sharply.
"Countries around the world have lost faith in the US economy. Demand for US bonds has plummeted. In fact, countries are starting to dump US bonds. Soon, the dam will break, and the economy will collapse, causing, regrettably, great pain for the American people for years," the IRGC said.
"The American people need to wake up. They need to take back control from corrupt politicians. This is the moment, when the US political system is at its weakest."
The US midterm elections are seen as a turning point in the conflict — not because of the potential outcome, but because of what Trump might do after the vote.
Trump has suggested he will either reach a deal with Iran or return to all-out war after the November 3 legislative elections. He has also dismissed the idea that the vote will have any impact on his Iran policy.
"They're waiting to see how I do in the midterms. What they don't realize is I'm not running," Trump said at the United Nations General Assembly last month.
"I don't believe at all and will not believe in the election. When it comes to Iran, it doesn't even enter my mind. The only thing is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon."
If Democrats win control of Congress, they could push for measures to limit Trump's ability to continue the war, including withholding funding for the military campaign.
However, Sina Toossi, a senior expert at the Center for International Policy, said there is debate inside Iran about the potential impact of a Democratic victory in November.
While some point to Democratic hawks to argue that little would change, others contend that a midterm defeat would leave Trump politically vulnerable and could constrain his war powers.
"I don't think they're betting in any direction, and I don't think it necessarily affects their overall strategy of increasing the cost [of the war] regardless of what happens in November," Toossi told Al Jazeera.
Toossi also assessed that Tehran is seeking to raise the political cost of the war for Trump by trying to speak directly to the American public.
"It's not so much that they're trying to put Democrats in power or manipulate US politics in a certain direction, beyond just increasing the overall cost on the Iran war issue, and playing the information war game and putting out their own narrative and propaganda," Toossi told Al Jazeera.
