Amazon Deforestation in Brazil Falls to Historic Low Ahead of Presidential Election

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has fallen to its lowest level since records began, according to new government data. But whether this globally significant achievement is maintained or reversed hangs in the balance ahead of Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25, pitting two candidates with diametrically opposed views on the future of the rainforest and on relations with the United States under President Donald Trump.

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva trailed in the first round of voting, despite an impressive record in slowing the destruction of the Amazon while reducing hunger and food insecurity. He is facing Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

The Prodes satellite series, regarded as the most accurate measure of deforestation, shows the area of Amazon forest cleared over the past year fell 41.8% to 3,335 km2 — the lowest level since measurements began in 1988. That is 1,236 km2 below the previous record, an area equivalent to the city of Rio de Janeiro.

According to data compiled by Brazil's National Institute for Space Research, deforestation has slowed 71.2% since Lula's administration took office in 2022. The result is largely due to stronger enforcement measures and state investment in environmental agencies.

The worst-performing states in 2026 included Pará, with 33.9% of the Amazon forest cleared during the year, Mato Grosso with 25.5% and Amazonas with 15.7%. Yet even in these places, figures fell by more than 45% compared with the previous year. The only state to record worsening deforestation was Roraima, a Bolsonaro family stronghold, with a 0.4% increase.

Beyond the Amazon, the neighbouring Cerrado ecoregion — a savannah — recorded its lowest annual deforestation since 2001, at 5,516 km2. This is significant because the Cerrado has long been treated as an environmental "sacrifice zone", where soy and beef producers can clear more forest than is permitted in the Amazon. Over the past four years, deforestation in the Cerrado has fallen 48.4%.

These remarkable results, which moved some conservationists to tears, stand in complete contrast to Jair Bolsonaro's 2019-2023 term, during which Amazon deforestation rose 59.5% — equivalent to the destruction of more than a million trees a day — through cuts to forest protection agencies, reduced enforcement of penalties against environmental criminals, and verbal encouragement of illegal mining, logging and land grabbing.

Jair Bolsonaro was later convicted of plotting a coup, but his son has vowed to free his father and give him any government position he chooses.

Flávio Bolsonaro has followed his father's example by courting the support of landowners responsible for ravaging the Amazon and other resource-extraction interest groups, while ignoring the climate crisis in his campaign platform.

Former environment minister Marina Silva, who could be seen as having done more than anyone to protect the rainforest, has warned that Flávio Bolsonaro would try to complete his father's "corrupt project" to destroy the Amazon.

The sharp contrast between the two candidates is visible in the map of election results across the Amazon, where Bolsonaro won the most votes in areas near degraded forest, mines, cattle ranches and soy monoculture, while Lula drew higher support in large cities or areas where the forest remains relatively intact.

The difference is also evident in the two candidates' very different relationships with the United States. Lula has warned that Trump is trying to "colonise" Brazil and seize its resources. He defends the Amazon as a sovereign Brazilian asset, a vital home for Indigenous peoples and an essential element in global efforts to stabilise the climate.

The Bolsonaro family, by contrast, has close ties to the United States. Eduardo, Flávio's brother, has lived in Texas since last year and has called on the Trump administration to impose punitive tariffs on his own country. Jair Bolsonaro once waved the US flag and chanted "USA, USA". If the family wins power, it is forecast to shift Brazil's trade priorities, especially critical minerals, from China and Europe towards the United States.

The biggest difference, however, may be the far right's willingness to exploit natural resources in the Amazon and elsewhere in Brazil and sell them to the highest bidder, regardless of environmental and social concerns.

Conservation groups say the new deforestation data shows the scale of what is at stake in the presidential runoff.

Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, said: "This figure makes clear that ending forest destruction in Brazil is entirely feasible. However, everything depends on the election result. The country will decide whether we move towards ending deforestation or towards ending the forest."