EU Fears Fertilizer Crisis from Iran War, Unveils Emergency Action Plan

EU agriculture ministers are meeting in Brussels to discuss fertilizer availability as the war in Iran disrupts global supply chains.

The meeting comes as the European Commission (EC) pushes a new Fertilizer Action Plan to support farmers facing soaring fertilizer costs. The measures aim to boost agricultural production and reduce Europe's reliance on food imports.

The plan includes establishing fertilizer stockpiles, emergency aid for farmers, and ramping up imports from countries other than Russia and Belarus, which are involved in the Ukraine war.

The trigger is disruption at the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. This vital shipping route typically carries about one-third of the world's seaborne fertilizer, raising fears that rising fuel and fertilizer costs could add pressure on farmers already struggling with high expenses.

Although the EU is less directly affected than some regions, the supply disruption has exposed internal divisions within the bloc on how to protect food supplies and shield farmers from escalating costs.

Europe's Exposure

EU data show Europe imports large volumes of fertilizers: in 2024, the bloc imported 2 million tons of ammonia, 5.8 million tons of urea, and 6.7 million tons of nitrogen and mixed fertilizers.

The EU also produces nitrogen fertilizers domestically, but this process relies heavily on imported gas. As Gulf conflicts push gas prices higher, domestically produced fertilizers also become more expensive.

The Middle East accounts for only about 3% of EU ammonia imports and 1-2% of nitrogen fertilizer imports, so the Strait of Hormuz blockade has not significantly affected European supply.

However, the EU is still affected through higher global prices and rising energy costs. European nitrogen fertilizers are made from gas, whose price has risen due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. European nitrogen fertilizer prices are now about 70% higher than the 2024 average, according to an EC plan report.

This vulnerability became clear after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when soaring gas prices forced many European fertilizer plants to scale back or temporarily shut down as production became unprofitable.

The EC says the new plan combines immediate measures to improve affordability and supply security with long-term steps to boost domestic production and reduce reliance on imports.

What Is the EU Proposing?

The plan includes emergency financial support for farmers through the EU agriculture budget, liquidity programs, and more flexible advances under the Common Agricultural Policy.

The EC is also exploring ways to help farmers reduce dependence on synthetic fertilizers, including through bio-based alternatives and more efficient fertilizer use.

In a second measure, the EU suspended tariffs on certain nitrogen fertilizers, including urea and ammonia, from countries other than Russia and Belarus. Some nitrogen fertilizers currently face tariffs of 5.5-6.5%. Reuters reported that the suspension could save importers about €60 million ($68 million).

EC President Ursula von der Leyen called the plan aimed at building "a stronger European fertilizer industry," while supporting farmers and accelerating "sustainable, endogenous solutions."

However, Irish Agriculture Minister Martin Heydon warned that rising fertilizer prices due to the Middle East crisis would affect food production costs, impacting the economic sustainability and competitiveness of European farmers.

Which Countries Are Most Vulnerable?

The impact varies across Europe. Ireland is particularly vulnerable due to low domestic fertilizer production, heavy reliance on imports, and a livestock-based farming system that depends heavily on nitrogen fertilizers for pastures. In 2025, Ireland imported 1.7 million tons of fertilizers, exposing farmers to international price volatility.

Finland has long-standing supply security stockpiles, including fertilizers, grain, and fuel. Sweden also announced plans to stockpile fertilizers, seeds, and grain as part of its "total defense" strategy after joining NATO.

Within the EU, Italy and France have pushed for easing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), arguing that carbon taxes have become another burden for farmers during the crisis. Meanwhile, environmental groups warned Brussels not to relax nitrogen pollution regulations, as this could increase pollution and health costs.

Poland and Germany, home to major nitrogen fertilizer producers, focus on opposing any measures that weaken domestic industry protection, particularly opposing tariff reductions on imports.

Will Food Prices Rise?

EU officials do not expect an immediate food price shock, as many farmers are still using fertilizers purchased before the Iran war disrupted supply chains.

However, officials fear higher fertilizer costs could create a supply chain problem later in the year. Fertilizer affects food prices more slowly, as gas turns into fertilizer, fertilizer nourishes crops, and crops become food — so the impact is typically felt about six months after the disruption begins.

Meanwhile, there are concerns that anger in rural areas already hit by high fuel, energy, and input costs could lead to a backlash against EU green policies, as right-wing and populist parties gain influence.

Still, Europe is much less exposed than many other regions. The most severe risk is concentrated in countries heavily dependent on Gulf fertilizers and energy, particularly in parts of Africa and South Asia.