Yemen government escalates attacks on Houthis: Developments and outlook

Yemen's internationally recognized government says its forces have carried out more than 100 military operations against the Houthi armed group (also known as Ansar Allah) in the past 24 hours, as fighting spreads across the Middle Eastern country.

Yemeni military spokesman Colonel Majed al-Nuzaili posted on social media platform X on Tuesday that at least 133 operations had been conducted targeting "the capabilities and elements of the terrorist Houthi militia," with the participation of army units stationed along frontline positions.

The government's latest offensive, backed by Saudi Arabia, came after Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced attacks on "a landing vessel of the Saudi-led coalition and four escort warships" near the port city of al-Makha (Mocha) in Yemen's Taiz province.

In recent weeks, fighting has erupted on multiple fronts, with clashes reported in several provinces including Marib, al-Jawf, Hadramout, Hodeidah, Taiz, al-Dhale and Lahj. The Iran-aligned Houthi forces, which control much of northern Yemen including the capital Sanaa, have also launched cross-border attacks targeting Saudi Arabia and ships in the Red Sea.

The multi-year period of relative calm that began with the 2022 UN-brokered truce has ended, as the region's poorest Arab nation stands on the brink of a new civil war.

Root causes of the conflict

The outbreak of fighting is linked to both local and regional developments. In late June, as regional tensions escalated due to the US-Iran war, both Yemen's internationally recognized government and its Houthi rivals began mobilizing troops.

By July, an attack believed to have been carried out by the Yemeni government on Sanaa airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing prompted the Houthis to declare a naval blockade and launch a general mobilization. This was followed by an escalation in attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Saudi oil facilities.

Government forces launched a preemptive campaign on August 6 targeting what they called Houthi arms smuggling routes. The most intense Houthi shelling in years followed, triggering a further cycle of escalation.

Warring parties

Military and strategic expert Ali al-Dhahab told Al Jazeera that the Houthis are backed by Iran along with allied groups such as Hezbollah, factions of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Support includes weapons, training, and intelligence.

Opposing them is Yemen's internationally recognized government, comprising a coalition of armed factions fighting against Houthi control, backed by the Saudi-led Arab coalition. Al-Dhahab said the factions have moved closer to unifying under Yemen's Ministry of Defense, including the Joint Forces on the western coast, the National Shield Forces, the Emergency Forces, and the Giants Brigades in the south.

Main fronts

Marib and Hadramout: In Marib, largely under government control, the front line forms an arc from northwest to southeast of the province, with clashes along the entire line. Houthi missiles and drones also strike deep into the province, including Marib city and several camps for displaced people. The province hosts more than two million internally displaced persons.

The Houthis' most intense attack came on August 6, when several missiles and drones targeted government military camps at al-Ruwaik, al-Thaniyah in Marib and al-Abr in Hadramout, causing dozens of casualties. For more than a week, the Houthis continued sporadic attacks on positions in government-held areas of Marib and Hadramout.

Al-Jawf: This province is part of a desert strip extending between Marib and the Saudi border to the north. The area has seen several Houthi attempts to infiltrate army lines, but they were repelled by government forces.

Taiz and Hodeidah: In the contested Taiz province, lying on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, government forces control Taiz city while the Houthis control surrounding areas to the north. Artillery and machine-gun clashes occur intermittently along the front line.

Since August 9, the Houthis have repeatedly targeted the port city of al-Makha with missiles and drones. At least seven people were killed and 35 wounded in an attack on August 9. In Hodeidah, largely Houthi-controlled, fighting has centered near the southwestern government-held towns of Hays and al-Khawkhah. On August 8, government forces launched a dawn attack on Houthi command centers and fortifications in the contested southern Hodeidah.

Al-Dhale and Lahj: The contested al-Dhale province, bordering Houthi-held Ibb, is witnessing direct ground clashes. Tensions persist around northern Lahj areas, where Houthi presence extends into the largely government-controlled province.

Strategic shift

Brigadier General Abdul Rahman al-Rubaie, a military and strategic researcher, believes the outbreak of fighting on multiple fronts reflects a strategic shift by pro-government forces, which now "consider any Houthi attack on any front as an attack on the entire nation." He said this is a result of restructuring government-aligned forces, operating through joint operations rooms that surround the Houthis from four directions, rather than attempts to redraw spheres of influence.

Al-Dhahab said pro-government forces have shifted from a defensive posture to simultaneous preemptive strikes. He noted this tactic is not new, but the years-long truce "had pushed it out of the media spotlight for a long time."

Houthi perspective

Hamid Asim, Deputy Governor of Sanaa in the Houthi administration, told Al Jazeera that the escalation aims to "prevent the blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia." He accused Riyadh of initiating the escalation by bombing Sanaa airport, preventing sick civilians from traveling abroad for treatment. He also accused Riyadh of concentrating soldiers, vehicles, and weapons on the outskirts of the capital Sanaa.

"Should we wait until these people reach Sanaa to fight us?" he asked. "We will win, God willing, because we are defending ourselves."

Riyadh has dismissed Houthi accusations and said it will continue to support the Yemeni government through the Saudi-led coalition backing legitimacy in Yemen, which has been operating since 2015.

Outlook ahead

Analysts interviewed by Al Jazeera are divided on what happens next. Al-Dhahab believes a full-scale confrontation is unlikely soon, citing regional conditions that do not yet allow the government and its coalition allies to have a decisive battle with "guaranteed results." He added that the Houthis are trying to "fast-track" a battle they know is inevitable, making a large-scale confrontation possible before the end of the year.

In contrast, al-Rubaie argues the balance has tipped in favor of the government, and a decisive outcome will come from Yemen's decision with regional and international backing.