Yemen's Government Needs the Tribes to Confront the Houthis: Will They Join?

Sanaa, Yemen – The Yemeni government's new military campaign against the Houthis is not only testing the balance of power in the country, but also the government's ability to convince powerful tribes in Houthi-controlled areas that the power equation is beginning to shift.

For years, many tribes hostile to or wary of the Iran-backed Houthis have avoided openly confronting the movement, deterred by the group's military strength and by earlier failed uprisings. Now those same tribes are watching the newly activated fronts of the internationally recognised government – mainly along the Red Sea coast, in Marib and al-Jawf – to see whether the limited gains since the "Yemen Dawn" military campaign was launched this week can be turned into lasting victories.

The offensive by Saudi-backed government forces follows major Houthi advances in September, when the armed group also known as Ansar Allah (Arabic for "Supporters of God") swept across Yemen's Red Sea coast. The Houthis seized key commercial corridors, including the port city of Mocha and territory around the Bab al-Mandeb strait, one of the world's most important shipping lanes.

While air strikes have damaged Houthi forces over the past few days, advancing deep into Houthi strongholds – where the group has been entrenched since the war began in 2014, including Sanaa, Saada and Amran – remains a formidable challenge.

With the government declaring total war on the Houthis and pledging to retake Sanaa, tribal distrust of the government could ease, prompting tribes to switch sides at the right moment, according to experts. The role of the tribes could therefore become crucial to the government's ability to push deeper into Houthi-held territory.

On Monday, Marib province – a government stronghold in the north – saw a large tribal gathering attended by anti-Houthi sheikhs and fighters from tribes such as Jadan in Marib, Nihm in Sanaa and other allied tribes.

The gathering declared a general mobilisation to support the armed forces in the war to "restore the state and overturn the Houthi coup".

"If this tribal support translates into genuine mobilisation and sustained participation in the war, the tribes will help government forces advance into Houthi-controlled areas and the Houthi core, including Sanaa," said Adel Dashela, a researcher at the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies.

Over the past decade of war in Yemen, tribes have repeatedly mobilised against the Houthis at the local level, but deep divisions and a lack of sustained outside backing have prevented the emergence of a unified tribal front. Still, the tribes can remain a key source of manpower and influence for the government.

"Tribal fighters remain indispensable in any future campaign against the Houthis. But to be effective, their military participation must come through the official command structures of the state and the coalition, rather than as an independent vanguard," Dashela said.

'Waiting for the right moment'

Tribes in Yemen do not want to risk confronting the Houthis without support, and they are "waiting for the right moment" to act, according to Abdulsalam Mohammed, president of Yemen's Abaad Studies and Research Centre.

"The tribes are looking for a strong state, and once they see the state is credible, they can side with it," Mohammed said.

He added that the tribes do not want to repeat the mistake of those that rose up against the Houthis and then received insufficient support from the government.

"Those tribes rose up against the Houthis, and they were crushed while the government played no effective role," Mohammed said.

In January 2019, fighting between the Houthis and the Hajoor tribe in northwestern Yemen (Hajjah province) erupted and lasted for weeks. The Houthis eventually seized Hajoor's areas in March of that year.

At the time, Saudi Arabia air-dropped food, medical supplies and weapons to besieged Hajoor fighters, but this did not prevent the tribe's defeat by the Houthis.

Mohammed argued that even in areas where the Houthis enjoy local support, some tribes could gradually shift their allegiance to the government side if they see it serves their interests.

"Not all tribes fighting for the Houthis are loyal supporters. Their motives range from pragmatism to ideological loyalty and material need," Mohammed said.

'A friend of the tribe'

Over the past decade, the Houthis have weakened traditional tribal power structures in the areas they control, co-opting some leaders and replacing others with loyalists. They have defeated tribal challenges, and have withstood not only conflict with the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia, but also US, British and Israeli bombing. All of this has reinforced a perception among the tribes that Houthi military capability has become "invincible".

A tribal sheikh in northern Yemen, who asked to remain anonymous for security reasons, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis' military "supremacy" in the country over more than a decade of war had "eclipsed the political and military role of the tribe".

"Before the Houthis took power, the government was like a friend of the tribe," he said. "Today, the tribe must submit to the Houthis."

According to the sheikh, the Houthis have used three tactics to tighten their grip on the territories: military force, financial incentives and their public identification with the Palestinian cause.

"The Houthis use military force if negotiation or financial incentives fail to win the tribe's support. Moreover, the Houthis' military support for Palestine has brought the group additional popular and tribal backing," the sheikh said.

As the Houthis have accumulated enormous military and financial power in recent years, the sheikh said tribes acting alone cannot match the group's strength. He also said that reported government advances on some fronts cannot by themselves be taken as a sign that the Houthis are collapsing.

"A concrete government advance on the battlefield will reassure some Yemeni tribes that the Houthis have lost ground," the sheikh said. "Once that happens, anti-Houthi and neutral tribes may feel confident and begin to confront the group."