Alberta Voters Overwhelmingly Reject Separatist Referendum, Handing Win to Carney

Voters in the Canadian province of Alberta have overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to begin a process toward independence, according to a projection by national broadcaster CBC, handing a victory to Prime Minister Mark Carney and supporters of Canadian unity.

By the early hours of Tuesday, with more than 1 million ballots counted, about 76% backed remaining in Canada, while 23% supported starting a process that could lead to separation. Roughly a third of the vote had been counted at that point.

Although the ballot did not directly ask about independence – a point that frustrated separatists – the referendum question still laid bare divisions within Alberta politics and raised questions about the durability of national unity.

Delays at about 100 of the province's roughly 1,400 polling stations pushed results back by more than two hours. Even so, initial results released soon after polls closed on Monday evening pointed to a clear win for those who want to stay in Canada.

The separation question – stay in Canada or launch a legal process that could lead to a second vote – was one of 10 questions put to Albertans on Monday. The others covered immigration, health care, education and the province's constitutional powers. Elections Alberta said the remaining results could take several days to count.

In the days before the vote, provincial leaders and federal politicians travelled across the province campaigning for a united country.

Carney, who grew up in Edmonton, warned residents of the oil-rich province against voting merely to "send a message" to the federal government.

"A vote against Canada is a dangerous gamble that would lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunity for Albertans and Canadians," he told an enthusiastic crowd last week.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who holds a parliamentary seat in the province, told supporters that Albertans are not "quitters".

"To those thinking of venting their frustration with the current government by voting to separate in the referendum, I want to say this: Canada is not just a government," he said. "It is a people, a flag, a land, a history and a promise."

Elections Alberta data showed that about 43% of eligible voters – roughly 1.3 million Albertans – had cast ballots before Monday through advance and mail-in voting. The figure suggests turnout could be higher than in the province's last referendum, in 2021.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said publicly that she would vote to stay in Canada, but will not require her party's elected members to do the same.

Her tenure as leader of the United Conservative Party was largely made possible by separatists within the party who ousted her predecessor, Jason Kenney. In recent months, Smith has tried to placate both the separatist and federalist wings of her party in a province where most residents are not interested in separation.

The referendum has also become a political burden for Smith's party, with public support slipping in recent months, including the loss of a once-safe Conservative stronghold in a byelection.

Even so, members of the separatist movement told the Guardian they will keep pushing for independence.

In an interview before the results came in, Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas, a staunch opponent of the independence movement, told the Guardian that the city's "best future" is "here, as a city of Canada", amid fears that uncertainty could trigger capital flight.

"I am a Canadian because I am a Canadian, not in a transactional way and regardless of which style of prime minister is in office," Farkas said.

"And I will continue to argue that our future is strongest when we are bound together, because no result will end this issue permanently," he added. "The separatist movement treats this as a long-term project."