Zambia holds presidential election amid economic hardship

Lusaka, Zambia – Zambians are voting in a general election on August 13, widely seen as a test of whether years of economic reforms have truly improved daily life.

According to the Electoral Commission of Zambia, about 8.79 million voters are registered to take part. There are 14 candidates running for president, including Hakainde Hichilema, leader of the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND), who is seeking a second term, and Brian Mundubile, the presidential candidate of the opposition Tonse alliance.

Economic record

The government of Mr. Hichilema has emphasized progress in economic reforms, including restructuring Zambia's debt and completing an International Monetary Fund (IMF) support program.

Inflation fell to 6.8% in April, according to the Zambia Statistics Agency, but high food, fuel, and electricity costs continue to pressure households.

Joan Chirwa, a human rights defender, veteran journalist in Zambia, and founder of the Free Press Initiative, said many citizens have yet to see clear improvements in their daily lives.

“The central question from voters is increasingly clear: whether the economic reforms during Mr. Hichilema's first term have delivered concrete improvements in household incomes and living conditions,” Chirwa told Al Jazeera.

She acknowledged progress in restructuring Zambia's debt and the IMF program but argued that macroeconomic stability has not necessarily translated into better household welfare, as food, fuel, and electricity costs continue to bite.

Wellington Muzengeza, an independent political risk analyst and founder of Built Africa, said the election is likely to be shaped by the gap between macroeconomic recovery and the lived experience of ordinary citizens.

While the government can point to debt restructuring, restored international credibility, free education, and new mining investments, Muzengeza argued that voters tend to judge performance by food costs, transport, job opportunities, electricity reliability, and the quality of public services.

Household pressures

Economic hardship is a major concern for voters, according to Levy Ndou, a lecturer in political science and public policy at Tshwane University of Technology.

“Political parties need to focus on the 60% of the population living below the national poverty line. These are people with high expectations that the government can change their lives,” Ndou told Al Jazeera.

Ndou identified unemployment as another major concern, saying economic difficulties have left many Zambians frustrated and seeking leaders who can offer practical solutions.

“Politicians and leaders should bring a message that can create change and hope for Zambians. They have experienced very big economic difficulties,” Ndou said.

He argued that campaign promises carry weight only if they lead to tangible improvements in people's lives. “The issues they talk about in the campaign should be turned into action; that is what ordinary people want to see.”

Copper revenue

Copper is another important election issue, with the mining sector being the main source of foreign exchange and government revenue. Copper accounts for about 70% of Zambia's export earnings and more than 10% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

The government has set an ambitious target of raising annual copper output to 3 million tonnes.

However, for Chirwa, the debate is not just about increasing output but also about how much revenue reaches the Zambian people.

“We can increase copper production, but how much of the revenue generated reaches the broader economy and makes the difference people expect?” she said.

“Whoever wins, they will face pressure to show that increased revenue from the mines is benefiting the people,” Chirwa added.

“The focus should go beyond output figures to look at the broader impact of the mining industry,” Muzengeza said. “Voters, especially in the Copperbelt, will want to know whether mineral wealth is creating stable jobs, local procurement opportunities, stronger communities, and sufficient public revenue.”

Ndou also raised concerns about Zambia's heavy reliance on copper exports, especially how the sector is managed and how revenue is shared.

“Leaders should provide appropriate legal frameworks” to prevent the exploitation of copper and exchange-rate mechanisms for personal gain, while ensuring Zambians benefit from their natural resources, Ndou said.

Debt reform

Debt restructuring is another key measure of the government's economic record.

“Debt restructuring is a significant achievement because it reduces immediate financial pressure and helps restore Zambia's international standing,” Muzengeza said.

“However, progress on public debt does not automatically translate into better household incomes or living standards,” he said. “The current administration has a credible macroeconomic story, but Zambia's electoral history shows that good economic management ultimately has to win broad public support.”

Political history

Zambia has long been seen as one of the strongest examples of democratic politics in southern Africa. Since returning to multiparty elections in 1991, six presidents from three political parties have taken office, although some transitions have shown signs of political tension.

Mr. Hichilema's path to the presidency has been particularly difficult. He lost narrowly in the 2015 and 2016 elections to Edgar Lungu and contested both results. In 2017, he was arrested and detained on treason charges before being released. He finally won the 2021 election, succeeding on his fifth attempt.

For Muzengeza, the ultimate economic question is what voters face. “Voters will decide whether the recovery has reached ordinary households quickly, broadly, and fairly,” he said.