Yemen at a Crossroads: Escalating Fighting at Bab al-Mandeb and the Risk of Regional War

Yemen is witnessing a major military escalation that has once again made its western coast and the area around the Bab al-Mandeb strait the focus of regional developments. The campaign, dubbed "Yemen's Dawn," launched by forces loyal to Yemen's internationally recognized government, has achieved some initial gains.

Government forces have advanced toward the Bab al-Mandeb strait and are now fighting reinforced Houthi positions. Clashes continue in several areas of Dhubab district and around Dhubab airport.

The central question now is whether these military moves can produce a lasting shift in the balance of power, or whether they will broaden the confrontation or open the way to a new negotiating track.

Control of Bab al-Mandeb

The fighting is concentrated around Bab al-Mandeb because of the strait's strategic importance to global trade and energy flows. For the parties to the Yemen conflict, control of the coastline, the islands and the surrounding highlands offers differing possibilities for surveillance, military deployment and threatening maritime traffic.

Advancing along the coast could help government forces retake key positions and narrow the Houthis' operating space. That alone, however, does not guarantee the security of the strait or eliminate threats to shipping.

Even if it loses coastal positions, the Houthis could retain the ability to mount attacks in the Red Sea. Threats to maritime traffic do not necessarily depend on direct control of the strait, but also on missiles, drones, launch platforms, logistics networks and the ability to operate from other locations.

As military operations shift from the coastal strip to the highlands, especially the Kahbub mountains in Lahj province and the western and southwestern highlands of Taiz province, the challenges of terrain, defense, movement and supply become more severe.

In this context, three distinct levels must be distinguished: retaking coastal positions, consolidating military control there, and establishing a sustainable capability to protect the strait and the surrounding area. Confusing these levels can lead to overestimating the campaign's results or underestimating the enemy's continued ability to fight.

Unity and cohesion

Recent statements by Dr. Rashad Al-Alimi, chairman of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council, indicate a shift in objectives: from containing the Houthi threat to restoring state institutions and liberating Sanaa.

This shift gives the current fighting a national dimension that goes beyond limited gains on the ground. Its success, however, still depends on the government forces' ability to unify command, secure supplies and coordinate the various military forces.

Containing internal divisions within the government — especially the southern issue — is essential to preserving gains and preventing the confrontation from turning into internal conflict.

Success requires coordination among the participating forces, avoiding competition for influence and aligning military interests with security and political governance capable of preventing infighting among factions.

This is especially important because the force playing the most effective role in the coastal battles, the Southern Giants Brigade, originates in the southern provinces.

The regional dimension

The Houthis' momentum is difficult to understand in isolation from the Iran conflict. Iran's support for the group is well known, but recent media reports have also revealed its extent. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is said to have directed Houthi operations along the coast and encouraged escalation against Saudi Arabia, with promises of further support.

Control of Bab al-Mandeb is strategically significant for Iran and its allies, because mounting pressure there could provide greater leverage in the Iran conflict.

For Saudi Arabia, its involvement in the Yemen conflict stems from direct security concerns and a desire to reduce threats to its territory and nearby shipping lanes.

In that context, a Saudi response to airport attacks that cause casualties appears highly likely. Riyadh may be less inclined to limit itself to the familiar exchanges along existing front lines and instead target more important sites or capabilities within the Houthis' military structure. The form of the response may reflect an effort to inflict significant losses without immediately expanding the confrontation into a broader regional war.

At the Gulf level, collective military engagement appears less certain. The attacks could prompt an emergency GCC meeting, stronger political statements or closer defense coordination, but reviving a joint military campaign against the Houthis would be more difficult. Gulf states no longer share the same degree of strategic consensus on Yemen, while differences, particularly between Saudi and UAE priorities, continue to constrain collective action.

Pakistan and Turkey have announced support for Saudi Arabia under the Mecca Treaty, though the precise parameters of their involvement remain undetermined. The current escalation will likely test whether these partnerships remain a political and defense framework or become substantive military support, including stronger air-defense deployments.

The possibility of U.S. involvement also remains, but any direct role would likely be limited. Previous U.S. intervention in Yemen focused more on deterrence, maritime security and containing the threat, rather than changing battlefield decisions in favor of government forces.

An expanded confrontation does not automatically mean all parties are seeking open war. Some may use escalation to improve their deterrent or negotiating position, though the risk of miscalculation remains present.

What comes next

The course of the Yemen war in the near future depends on the government forces' ability to hold the positions they have retaken, secure the area around the strait and connecting routes, and remove the Houthi threat from the highlands. If these conditions are met, the balance of military and political pressure could shift, though that would not necessarily end the Houthi maritime threat.

However, if the advance stalls at difficult positions and the Houthis can continue using missiles and drones to counterattack, this could produce a protracted confrontation. A war of attrition could have devastating humanitarian and economic effects not only on Yemen but across the region.

The risk of escalation and all-out regional war could still push the parties to seek understandings or a truce. But turning military progress into a settlement would require addressing broader political and security issues, including power-sharing, mutual guarantees and the security of shipping lanes.

In other words, the ongoing coastal battle could become a gateway to a larger change in the course of Yemen's crisis, rather than just another cycle in a long war.

The views in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.