Brazil Supreme Court Scandal Gives the Bolsonaro Dynasty a Path Back to Power

Addressing thousands of right-wing supporters in São Paulo on Brazil's Independence Day, September 7, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro did not focus on his rival in the presidential race — leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — but on a man who is not running at all.

"Anyone who votes for Lula is voting for Alexandre de Moraes," Flávio shouted, referring to the Supreme Court justice whom billionaire Elon Musk once called "Voldemort." Although Lula did not appoint Moraes, Bolsonaro supporters have tied the two together since the justice presided over the case that convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro and sentenced him to 27 years in prison for a coup plot.

Now, just days before the decisive round of voting on October 25, Moraes is once again at the center of a presidential scandal — one that Lula says helped Flávio Bolsonaro overtake him to become the front-runner. The justice once hailed as the "savior" of democracy for restraining Jair Bolsonaro may now have paved the way for the family's return to power.

The scandal began with a police investigation that found the law firm of Moraes's wife held a contract worth about £20 million with Daniel Vorcaro, a banker accused of leading Brazil's largest bank fraud. Messages also indicated a close relationship between Moraes and Vorcaro, although the justice denies their authenticity.

The investigation later revealed that at least four other justices also had ties to the disgraced banker, meaning half of the court's 10 sitting justices have been drawn into the scandal.

The affair peaked in a bitter on-air clash between Moraes and another justice during a televised session last month. A series of subsequent rulings showed the two sides and their allied justices repeatedly overturning one another's decisions, dominating headlines for weeks.

A day after losing the first round, Lula blamed part of his poor result on having to "carry on his shoulders… the mess" of the Supreme Court — a move many political observers saw as an attempt to distance himself from the crisis. Campaign coordinator Edinho Silva said that in the eyes of society, Lula "paid the price" for that institutional damage.

While analysts point to many reasons for the right's momentum — from household debt to simple fondness for Flávio — many agree the Supreme Court crisis played a decisive role, especially with undecided voters, the group that decides the outcome when the electorate is evenly split between the left and right blocs.

"These are people who believe that, like congress, the country's highest court has become corrupt. That deepens the apathy of some who might otherwise have voted for Lula and fuels the anti-system sentiment that nourishes the right," said Camila Rocha, a political scientist who studies Brazil's new right.

She said that when asked about the court crisis, people often say: "Everything is a mess, but one thing we know for sure is that the big villain is Alexandre de Moraes."

Conrado Hübner Mendes, a constitutional law professor at the University of São Paulo, argues that Moraes put himself in that position by "taking on the role of the heroic protagonist." The justice blocked several of Jair Bolsonaro's moves during his term, angering right-wing figures such as Musk and Donald Trump. The United States imposed sanctions aimed at pressuring him, a move seen as interference in Jair's trial.

On Monday, Moraes allowed Flávio Bolsonaro to resume visiting his father after a 90-day ban imposed in July, when the senator read out his father's letter on the election, which Moraes deemed a violation of the order barring Jair Bolsonaro from using social media.

Beyond the outrage of Bolsonaro supporters, legal scholars and some Brazilian leftists, while acknowledging Moraes's decisive role in the coup trial, have also criticized many of his other rulings as authoritarian.

"He took on a huge responsibility, then threw it away in the most vulgar way possible, with this alleged corruption case," Mendes said.

While acknowledging the contract between the law firm of his wife, Viviane Barci de Moraes, and the disgraced banker — whose wealth was unusually large by the standards of Brazilian law firms — Moraes denies any wrongdoing. He says he never heard a case involving Vorcaro and therefore had no conflict of interest.

Vorcaro has been detained since November, when he was preparing to board a private plane from São Paulo to Malta. He is accused of leading a scheme through Banco Master involving aggressive fundraising, unrealistic returns and falsified balance sheets, leaving estimated losses of £9 billion, most of it related to wages and pension savings.

Messages from Vorcaro's phone show that two days before his arrest, the banker asked someone police later identified as Moraes: "Do you think… I need to leave the country?" Moraes denies being the recipient and accuses fellow justice André Mendonça, appointed by Jair, of using the police against him for electoral reasons, to aid Flávio's campaign.

Mendonça is one of four other justices suspected of ties to Vorcaro. An institute he founded is said to have received an £800,000 loan from an associate of the banker, though he says he repaid it. As for the other justices, investigators found links ranging from a £64 million contract to shares allegedly held in a fund that received £5.2 million from Vorcaro. All deny wrongdoing.

No report linked Lula to the scandal until Friday, when Veja magazine reported that Vorcaro claimed to have paid £4.5 million to fund Oliver Stone's 2024 documentary about the president. However, federal police and prosecutors say the banker made no such allegation and provided no evidence in his testimony. Lula denies receiving money from the banker.

Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation over the £20 million he was recorded asking Vorcaro to provide for a biopic about his father. One line of inquiry is that the money helped cover living and travel expenses for his brother, former congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, during his self-exile in the United States, where he lobbied the Trump administration against Lula. The senator says all the money was for the film, which has no release date.

Beyond Flávio's momentum, sweeping right-wing victories ensure an even more conservative congress in 2027, including the Senate majority needed to impeach Supreme Court justices — a demand of his father's supporters since the former president was convicted.

"With this scandal, the justices have given Bolsonarism something it did not have: an impeachable cause that could justify removing them," Mendes said. "A court that ignores conflicts of interest and wallows in ties with political and economic power is a court that has corrupted itself."

Even if no justice is impeached, if Bolsonaro wins he could have the right to appoint four seats as justices retire during his term, giving the court at least six of its 11 members appointed by him or his father.

"We could expect a court entirely subservient to the government," Mendes said, arguing that the separation of powers would be threatened and that the justices themselves must bear part of the blame. "The court has done the work that the authoritarian project needed — and brought itself down."