US-Iran conflict risks becoming a protracted 'frozen conflict'

Two months after the United States and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, negotiations appear to have stalled. Opposing blockades at the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global energy supplies, while the fate of Iran's nuclear program remains unresolved.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said on Tuesday that the U.S. remains engaged in talks with Iran but will “not rush to a bad deal,” a day after President Donald Trump and top security advisers discussed a new Iranian proposal to end the war.

All military options remain on the table, despite the ceasefire that took effect on April 8 halting active conflict. Qatar's Foreign Ministry warned Tuesday of the potential for a “frozen conflict,” where the vital waterway is used as leverage amid possible renewed violence.

Analysts say that, absent a long-term deal allowing both sides to claim victory, a low-intensity conflict punctuated by periodic airstrikes offers a convenient exit—albeit one accompanied by regional instability and global economic disruption.

The cost of a 'frozen' war

Mehran Kamrava, an Iran expert at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that the US-Iran war could already be described as “frozen,” but the neither-war-nor-peace scenario carries too high a price for both parties.

“Iran cannot withstand an indefinite blockade of its ports, and the U.S. cannot maintain an indefinite blockade of Iran,” Kamrava said. “In the short term, we may see a frozen conflict, but this cannot continue for months or years.”

The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft estimates Washington's first-month war costs at between $20 and $25 billion. A large-scale ground campaign in Iran akin to Iraq in 2003 would require at least 500,000 troops and roughly $55 billion per month—equivalent to over $650 billion per year—but the institute warns this is still a significant underestimate.

The U.S. military imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships starting April 13. Last week, Washington deployed a third carrier strike group along with thousands of elite troops, the largest military buildup since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. More than 10,000 U.S. troops are estimated to be in the region.

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz against ships not paying fees has hit the U.S., where average gasoline prices have reached nearly $4.18 per gallon ($1.10 per liter), the highest in almost four years. This comes ahead of the November midterm elections, with polls showing Trump's approval rating at a low 34%, compared to 47% when he began his second term in January 2025.

Iranian attacks have also caused billions of dollars in damage to U.S. military assets in the region and strained Washington's relations with Gulf allies, who have themselves been targeted by Iranian strikes on major industrial and energy sites.

Prolonged or persistent conflict

In Trump's initial calculation, the war in Iran would last “four to five weeks.” Two months on, Chandler Williams, a researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), believes the conflict has already exceeded expectations.

“When a country relies heavily on precision airstrikes, it often escalates rather than resolves, because it leaves no exit,” Williams said. “The question now is whether this prolonged conflict will become a persistent one.”

Washington is betting on sustained economic and diplomatic pressure, combined with Trump's frequent threats to resume airstrikes, to see if it can “finish what airstrikes could not achieve.” For its part, Iran is aware of the U.S. military advantage and is choosing to exploit the Strait of Hormuz until Washington decides negotiations are more beneficial.

A United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report earlier this month showed that military escalation is affecting jobs and livelihoods in Iran through disruption of economic activity, movement, and supply chains. Most of Iran's grain imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and shipping disruptions have raised concerns about delays, tightened domestic supplies, and increased risks of food insecurity in the country of 90 million people.

'Mowing the grass' in Iran

On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Defense requested $53.6 billion for autonomous drones in fiscal year 2027, an increase of about 24,000% over last year.

Michael Kerr, a historian and political scientist at King’s College London, noted that Israel has long pursued an attrition strategy in its prolonged conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, resulting in nominal ceasefires that do not prevent further military flare-ups. Israel calls this tactic “mowing the grass.”

The U.S. could adopt a similar approach toward Iran, severely destabilizing the region and undermining the Gulf states' aspirations for stability and economic prosperity. According to Kerr, the risks of using this tactic against a country with drone and missile capabilities like Iran are significantly higher.

“If you mow the grass (against Iran), what stops Iran from attacking Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and firing drones at U.S. ships every time that happens?” he said. Iran, the second-largest country in the Middle East, holds a strategically important position in the Gulf and the Sea of Oman.

Kerr argued that Western expectations of being able to “put Iran's regional and global ambitions back in the box through bombing” are certain to fail. “The idea that Iran can be bombed into accepting Israeli regional hegemony through U.S. bombing—I don't think it will work.”