Could the Trump–Milei Bond Reshape the Falklands Dispute?

Argentine President Javier Milei has stepped up his sovereignty claims over the British-controlled Falkland Islands (known in Argentina as the Malvinas), at a time when his close ties with U.S. President Donald Trump and growing tensions between Washington and London are fueling speculation about the contested territory's future.

Milei—a far-right populist leader of the Liberal Progress Party—regularly attends Trump-supporting political events in the United States. Trump has called Milei his “favorite president.” The two leaders have met multiple times.

The Falklands, located nearly 13,000 km from the UK mainland, are a self-governing British Overseas Territory with a population of just 3,200, yet they host about a million penguins each summer. Argentina bases its claim on inheritance from the Spanish crown in the 19th century, while the UK cites continuous presence since 1833 and a 2013 referendum in which 1,513 out of 1,517 residents voted to remain British.

Tensions escalated into war in April 1982 when Argentina invaded the islands; British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher dispatched a task force that recaptured them after 74 days of conflict. The war left 655 Argentine and 255 British soldiers dead. Ironically, Milei once described Thatcher—a conservative icon—as a political role model.

In recent years, successive left-leaning Argentine presidents had consistently reaffirmed sovereignty claims, but Milei initially faced criticism for what some saw as a soft stance. In a 2024 BBC interview, he accused politicians of “beating their chests” on sovereignty without results. Yet in a livestream interview last week, he declared that Argentina was “making unprecedented progress” on the Falklands issue.

Milei’s remarks come as his domestic popularity slumps. According to tracking data from the Americas Society/Council of the Americas (AS/COA), 61 % of Argentines are dissatisfied with Milei—his lowest rating since taking office in December 2023.

Transatlantic relations are also souring. Trump has repeatedly criticized British Prime Minister Keir Starmer over his position on the U.S.–Israel war in Iran, accusing him of failing to support Washington and of not helping to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. After the war began and Starmer refused to allow U.S. forces to use British military bases for strikes on Iran, Trump described the UK leader as “no Churchill.” King Charles III and Queen Camilla arrived in the U.S. Monday–Thursday this week on a trip that British Ambassador Christian Turner called “rekindling and renewing a unique friendship” between the two allies.

On the Falklands specifically, the U.S. has long maintained a neutral stance, only recognizing the islands as under British administration. But recent reports indicate that the Pentagon has prepared a memorandum outlining options for Trump to penalize allies deemed insufficiently supportive in the Iran war, including reviewing U.S. policy on the Falklands. However, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has downplayed the likelihood of any shift.

Experts argue that even strong Trump–Milei ties will not resolve the dispute without British consent. “Any resolution to this long-standing dispute will surely involve negotiation, and that means persuading the British, not the Americans,” said Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, speaking to Al Jazeera. He contends that hints of a change in U.S. neutrality are clearly designed to needle the British prime minister, given that Trump remains a “big fan” of Milei—who has already helped Argentina renew a $20 billion currency swap deal to stabilize the peso ahead of the 2025 legislative elections.