Gulf Rethinks Collective Security After Iran War

As the US and Iran move toward a long-term ceasefire, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states may seek new security arrangements after a regional war—one they did not initiate—comes to an end.

US President Donald Trump recently scrapped plans for further airstrikes on Iran, announcing that a deal with Tehran is near and that he would soon disclose the “time” and “place” for signing it. Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official said the government is still reviewing a proposed memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Washington.

Subsequent remarks by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif suggest an agreement may have been reached, and upcoming developments could significantly impact collective security in the region.

Attacks on the Gulf

The US operates military facilities at at least 19 locations across the Middle East and North Africa, including permanent bases in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. Before hostilities with Iran erupted, roughly 40,000–50,000 US troops were stationed in the region.

The US-Gulf alliance was once thought to shield these states from conflicts elsewhere. But over the past four months, Gulf countries hosting US bases have become targets of Iranian attacks.

“If there is a way to describe the prevailing security model in the region since the 1980s, the concept of ‘security partnership’ is the most fitting,” remarked Mahjoub Al-Zuwairi, a scholar of Middle Eastern politics. “Regional states have chosen to tie their security to broader international alliances. For decades, this model provided significant deterrence, logistics, and intelligence—difficult to replace.”

‘A Leaky Security Umbrella’

The Iran war exposed a paradox: while Iranian officials repeatedly called Gulf neighbors “brothers,” they consistently targeted those states. Despite Gulf nations’ declarations that no attacks on Iran were launched from their soil, they became targets nonetheless.

At least 28 people have been killed across the six GCC member states in drone and rocket attacks believed to be Iranian, since the US and Israel launched their campaign against Iran on February 28. This raises questions about the effectiveness of the US-Gulf security arrangement.

“The war itself has punctured that sense of security. The US security umbrella has been weak at best, or useless at worst,” said Simon Mabon, professor of international relations at Lancaster University. “They have long relied on it for protection. But the presence of US troops on their soil makes them direct targets. They cannot escape their geography. Despite tensions, hostility, and attacks, Iran persists. They must find ways to deal with that reality.”

Economic Cost of War

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hampered efforts by some Gulf states to diversify their oil-dependent economies toward tourism, services, and finance, though not all have been equally affected. Saudi Arabia has diverted some oil exports via the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea; Oman, with its main ports outside Hormuz, has also benefited from higher energy prices. Conversely, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar have been hit harder due to their reliance on the waterway for energy exports.

“New pipelines are being built, but their capacity is minuscule compared to the Strait of Hormuz. Replacing it would require massive investment and years of development,” Professor Mabon noted.

Toward Iran—or Away from Washington?

One possible lesson from the conflict is that Gulf states may seek dialogue rather than confrontation with Iran. The UAE restored diplomatic ties with Tehran in 2022, and a year later, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to normalize relations, with China acting as mediator.

Al-Zuwairi suggests the conflict could revive regional security plans led by the Middle East, such as the 2019 Hormuz Peace Initiative—which proposed a Gulf security framework involving Iran, Iraq, and the six GCC states. However, heightened mistrust following Iranian attacks on neighbors makes this scenario unlikely in the near term.

“The recent war has opened a wide door to reconsidering the Gulf security system with neighbors. But how can Tehran propose a non-aggression pact while still firing missiles at neighboring cities? This initiative seems theoretically sound but practically doomed, unless Iran’s behavior changes,” he said.

A solution for the Gulf may be a hybrid arrangement: maintaining ties with Washington while also exploring regional and domestic options, such as greater investment in national defense industries. One possible model is the mutual defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed in September 2024, which stipulates that an attack on one will be considered an attack on both.

However, when the Gulf has previously felt abandoned by the US, responses have varied widely: the UAE and Bahrain deepened ties with Israel, but a new framework could promote collective action on security issues.

“The war has proven that guarantors, no matter how many slogans they chant, first and foremost protect their own interests. The region has paid for a war it did not choose… Gulf security will not be forged in Washington… It will be forged when Gulf states realize they must build it themselves, because when the fire starts, those closest to the flames always pay the price,” Al-Zuwairi concluded.