Ceuta Crisis Exposes Trump's Influence Over Morocco

The close ties between Washington and Rabat have long been touted by both sides, from Morocco becoming the first African nation to join Donald Trump's Peace Council to his congratulatory message to King Mohammed VI on the 27th anniversary of his reign.

This week, new evidence emerged. While Spain grappled with the fallout of the mass influx into Ceuta, the Moroccan monarch confirmed naming a $1 billion highway running through the disputed Western Sahara region after Trump.

This deep relationship is now under scrutiny as questions over what caused the deadly border crossing into Spain's small North African territory remain unanswered. Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa project director at the International Crisis Group, said there is enough evidence to hypothesize Morocco was behind the incident, but no clear trigger—which has left people puzzled.

According to Fabiani, Spain's rapprochement with Algeria, Morocco's arch-rival, could be one cause. But another, more plausible explanation points to the United States. "In terms of plausibility, it's not hard to imagine Morocco doing something to score points with allies, given how close relations are between Morocco and the Trump administration," he said.

Even if Morocco may not have orchestrated the wave of people into Ceuta, its ties with the Trump administration, along with the Moroccan king's desire to maintain sovereignty claims over Ceuta, may have influenced how Rabat responded to viral rumors that Spain's border had been thrown open. Fabiani said Moroccan security forces were certainly monitoring those conversations and may have decided to do nothing to see where things led.

Tens of thousands swam or waded across one of the two land borders between the EU and Africa. Spain scrambled to respond, while far-right factions seized on the imagery. In Washington, Vice President JD Vance and the State Department blamed Spain's Socialist-led government, while Trump warned that voting for Democrats would make what happened in Spain look "small." None mentioned Morocco or its potential role.

Trump and his administration have long shown animosity toward Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who refused the US use of an airbase during the Iran war, rejected NATO's 5% GDP defense spending target, and sharply criticized Israel's actions in Gaza. The US response appears a victory for Rabat, which has had a relationship with the American president since his first term, when Morocco agreed to normalize ties with Israel in exchange for Trump's recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara.

Since then, the Moroccan king has intensified outreach efforts, according to Fabiani. "Moroccans have worked hard to cultivate relationships with every important policymaker in the administration, including the president, to ensure this administration will back Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara to the end."

A sign that this relationship could yield more than Western Sahara comes from a recent US Congressional report, which showed sympathy for Morocco's non-recognition of Ceuta as Spanish territory, describing the enclave as "administered by Spain" rather than part of Spain since 1580.

Haizam Amirah-Fernández, director of the Contemporary Arab Studies Center in Madrid, said those close to both Trump and the Israeli government have shown particular interest in Ceuta. "They have been talking about Ceuta nonstop for days, which is remarkable."

What emerges is Rabat's willingness to use "hybrid tactics" to achieve political goals, according to Amirah-Fernández. This echoes May 2021, when Rabat loosened border controls to let more than 8,000 people surge into Ceuta in response to Madrid allowing a Western Sahara independence leader to travel to Spain for Covid-19 treatment.

This time, with nearly ten times as many crossings, the incident sparked mutual recrimination within the EU rather than a coordinated effort to pressure Morocco—the bloc's largest trading partner and biggest foreign investor. Amirah-Fernández suggested the response from some EU governments was ultimately what the White House wanted: erosion of solidarity among European partners.

For their part, senior Moroccan officials have denied any involvement. At the Moroccan Policy Analysis Institute in Rabat, there is little doubt that Morocco-US relations are in a "golden age." Even so, according to Said Saddiki, senior researcher at the institute, Morocco's approach to the Trump administration remains pragmatic. "Moroccan policymakers are well aware of President Trump's transactional style and have sought to protect Morocco's strategic autonomy," Saddiki wrote in an email, adding that ties with the Trump administration have bolstered Morocco's international standing but have not undermined relations with Spain or the EU.

According to Fabiani, the Ceuta affair highlights the danger of Europe relying on North African states to control migrant flows. "This leaves Europe completely vulnerable and dependent on the goodwill of a country like Morocco. Morocco is a partner, but at the same time they have their own interests. This fragility has been exposed."

That weakness could become a bigger problem over time, as Morocco views the Ceuta issue as unresolved. "Morocco feels emboldened, and there's an administration in Washington ready to back it. I don't think Europe is ready for what's coming, because things could get far more complicated."