Why Flávio Bolsonaro's First-Round Surge Shocked Brazil

On Sunday night, as the scale of the far-right's victory in Brazil became clear, a reworked football chant echoed through one of the most left-wing neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro. "Turn it around, Lu-laaaa! Turn it around, Lu-laaaa!" despondent progressives shouted, drowning their sorrow after watching their leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, suffer a painful election defeat.

But the challenge facing the veteran left-wing leader now appears enormous after Flávio Bolsonaro's shock first-round win — a result analysts attribute to a complex web of social, political and religious factors.

"Flávio Bolsonaro's result shows that Bolsonarismo is a far-right movement… that has taken deep root in Brazilian society," said Bernardo Mello Franco, political commentator for Rio's O Globo newspaper. "His father (Jair Bolsonaro) was convicted and jailed over a coup plot (2022-2023), yet his allies still won elections across the country, and his son is leading going into the second round of the presidential election."

Here are the main reasons behind Bolsonaro's strong showing:

The power of evangelical churches

Evangelical churches in Brazil have expanded strongly since the 1980s, and evangelicals now make up nearly a third of the population. Many evangelical voters — often influenced by their pastors — have backed the radical populist movement built by Jair Bolsonaro and now led by his eldest son, himself an evangelical. During his 2018-2022 presidency, Bolsonaro's ultra-conservative policies helped him cement a lasting alliance with leaders of major churches such as televangelist Silas Malafaia.

"This religious machine… was placed at the service of Bolsonarismo: it starts with pastors who have millions of followers on social media, buy TV airtime, lead churches with millions of members, and turn themselves into campaigners for the Bolsonaro family," Mello Franco said.

Fear of crime and security populism

Mello Franco says urban violence is another factor that has amplified the "far-right storm" sweeping Brazil. Pro-gun right-wing populists such as the Bolsonaro family offer voters "distorted but understandable solutions" to high crime rates, such as increased police violence, mass incarceration and lowering the age of criminal responsibility. "This appeals to an electorate that is afraid of violence and crime," he said.

The standard-bearer of this "security populism" in Latin America is El Salvador's authoritarian President Nayib Bukele, who has jailed thousands of people, often without due process, in a bid to cut the murder rate. Mello Franco said El Salvador's "near-dictator" and his supposed "miracle solutions" were cited by Bolsonarista politicians as an inspiration during the 2026 campaign.

Such hardline proposals were further boosted by Donald Trump's decision to designate Brazil's two biggest criminal groups — Red Command in Rio and PCC in São Paulo — as foreign terrorist organizations. On the campaign trail, Bolsonaro and his allies pledged to "neutralize drug terrorists" and chemically castrate rapists — promises that appear to have won over many violence-weary voters.

Lula seen as out of touch with everyday issues

Analysts say Lula's failure to focus on everyday issues such as crime may have hurt his prospects. The veteran left-wing leader spent much of the campaign pledging to defend Brazil's sovereignty against Donald Trump's "colonial" designs and to protect rare-earth reserves. "Meanwhile, what voters wanted was solutions to more urgent problems such as bank debt, food prices and insecurity," Mello Franco said.

At a recent rally on the outskirts of Rio, some Lula supporters appeared distracted as the president spoke at length about critical minerals and artificial intelligence.

Political analyst Thomas Traumann, a former spokesman for left-wing President Dilma Rousseff, argues that Lula's third administration has ignored a large segment of society unhappy over economic issues or controversies involving the supreme court. "The government treats any criticism… as a sign of fascism — which certainly exists in Brazil — and of elitism, which also exists," he said. "But there is also a group of voters who expected more from the government, neither fascist nor elitist. They are simply people who don't like the government and decided to punish it."

Age and the lack of a successor

Some critics also point to Lula's age as an Achilles' heel and blame him for failing to anoint a clear successor. He will turn 81 two days after the October 25 second round. A recent article in The Economist called Lula a "doddery old leftist" and compared him to "geriatric leader" Joe Biden, who was forced to abandon his 2024 re-election campaign after a disastrous debate with Trump.

Traumann called questions about Lula's physical or mental fitness "ridiculous." "When you see him speak, you can tell that's not the problem," he said of the octogenarian who still works out at the gym. Mello Franco agreed: "Unlike Biden, Lula has never appeared physically frail or cognitively diminished. I don't think that's the issue."

But Traumann sees one parallel with the former US president: like Biden, Lula is stubborn, does not listen to others enough, and appears to think that good economic indicators are enough to guarantee re-election. "This disconnect from reality reminds me of Biden," he said, attributing it to "the stubbornness of age." From the start of the campaign, Lula seemed to believe "the election was in the bag." "And it wasn't," Traumann said.

A chapter in the global far-right wave

Many observers see Sunday's right-wing victory as another chapter in the advance of the social-media-savvy far right worldwide. "We are seeing this revolution in many other parts of the world. We see it in the US, in parts of Latin America, in Europe in different ways," political scientist Miguel Lagos said. Lagos believes that in Brazil the movement is driven by "deep anger against the classic political elite," including journalists, traditional politicians and intellectuals.

Jair Bolsonaro and his son Flávio are both professional politicians who between them have spent half a century in Rio state's legislature or Brazil's congress. Yet the two still portray themselves as Trump-style outsiders fighting the establishment, promising to drain the swamp of which they are themselves a part.

Mello Franco believes Bolsonaro is now the strongest candidate to become president. "But I don't think the race is over," he warned. "Brazil always shows us that turnarounds are not only possible — they are almost part of the picture."