Lebanon's Role in US-Iran Deal at Risk of Israeli Sabotage
Justin Salhani (Al Jazeera)
Israel continues to attack Lebanon despite a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, threatening to derail negotiations. Analysts say Lebanon has become a key factor in the deal between Tehran and Washington.
Beirut, Lebanon – The memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran explicitly calls for an “immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.” The interim pact, signed on Wednesday, stresses that a final deal will confirm an end to the war in Lebanon.
Israel, however, appears to be ignoring that message. Israeli attacks on Lebanon have continued since the MoU was signed, pushing the death toll since its air and ground campaign began on March 2 past 4,000. Those deadly strikes have prompted Iran to postpone talks with the US scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.
Both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have demanded a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. But Hezbollah wants the issue included in the Iran talks, while the government prefers direct negotiations with Israel.
“Lebanon is at the starting point of the deal because the Iranians want to assert that Lebanon’s territorial integrity is essential for the MoU’s success,” said Michael Young, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Israel seeks to disrupt US-Iran deal
Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have been fighting since October 2023, but Israel escalated the conflict twice – in September 2024 and again this March – bombing Lebanon and invading its territory. The second escalation came after Hezbollah fired into Israel for the first time in over a year, responding to the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and more than 10,000 Israeli ceasefire violations since late 2024.
Since then, Israel has killed at least 4,057 people in Lebanon and wounded more than 12,121. It has also targeted medics and journalists and leveled dozens of villages.
US President Donald Trump has spoken out repeatedly about Lebanon, saying Israel needs to scale down its operations there. At the G7 summit in France, Trump said: “Israel has been fighting Hezbollah too long and too many people have died. You don’t have to knock down an entire building every time you’re looking for someone, because there are many people in that building who aren’t Hezbollah.”
Analysts say Lebanon’s inclusion in the MoU shows Iran takes the situation there seriously, and the US – which has positive bilateral relations with the Lebanese government – could pressure Israel to halt military operations. “The US wants to separate the Lebanon and Iran conflicts,” said David Wood, senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group. “They can help Lebanon by demanding Israel implement the bilateral ceasefire proposal of June 3.”
Israel may have its own calculus. Young said Israel “will try to sabotage” the MoU and US-Iran talks by continuing the war in Lebanon. Karim Safieddine, a non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, commented: “There is no political, technological, industrial or economic incentive for Israel to stop the war in Lebanon.”
Hezbollah and Iran’s choice
Iran must decide whether to act if Israel refuses to stop attacking Lebanon and the US cannot or will not apply pressure. Safieddine said there is internal division in Iran over the level of intervention. After fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon despite the ceasefire announcement, Iran declared it would again close the Strait of Hormuz.
Many Lebanese hope the deal will end the war. In a speech, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem praised Iran for “linking Lebanon with a spirit of sacrifice that forces Israel to stop its aggression.”
Israel and Lebanon are expected to resume direct talks next week. Disarming Hezbollah remains a major issue. The Lebanese government had been pursuing a disarmament process since early 2025, but it stalled because of the Israeli escalation.
Wood said, “Lebanese leaders are in a bind. On one hand, Lebanon wants to decide its own future. On the other, it’s hard to fault President Joseph Aoun for welcoming Iran’s insistence on including Lebanon in the MoU, even if that hasn’t stopped the fighting yet.” He added, “Lebanon has very little influence in the core conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, so Beirut will need outside support in the coming period.”
