United Nations forecasters have warned that the rapidly developing El Niño weather system could push about 50 million people into severe food insecurity by the end of next year. This figure is in addition to the hundreds of millions already facing dangerous hunger due to prolonged drought in parts of Africa and food price pressures from the war in the Middle East.
The UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Wednesday that even if El Niño proves weaker than projected models, it could still drive many countries into food insecurity. Currently, 45 countries with 225 million people are in severe food insecurity, and El Niño could increase that number by more than one-fifth.
According to the analysis, Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa are likely to be hardest hit. In South Asia and Southeast Asia, rainfall could decline, causing serious problems for agriculture and farmers.
This year’s El Niño—a weather phenomenon occurring every few years in the Pacific Ocean that alters global rainfall—is assessed to be the strongest in at least 70 years. Many call it a “super El Niño,” although the term is not officially recognized.
Impact on food prices and harvests
Private-sector forecasters have already warned of El Niño’s impact on global food prices, but the WFP report is the first study to closely examine global hunger. The WFP said it hopes to mitigate the effects of extreme weather through early warning systems and “preventive” relief efforts, with a budget of at least $80 million.
The consequences will be long-lasting because farmers may lose more than one growing season before food reserves run out. In southern Africa, the main planting season runs from October this year to March 2027, but the worst impact will occur about nine months later, during the post-harvest lean season.
“The largest impact on food security in southern Africa will be during the 2027-2028 lean season,” said Richard Choularton, director of climate and resilience services at WFP.
During the 2015-2016 El Niño, about 60 to 100 million people were affected by severe food insecurity—the term WFP uses for hunger below famine levels. In those years, the WFP had not yet implemented updated preventive actions, so experts hope this year’s extreme weather will have less impact even if El Niño is more severe.
However, Choularton said efforts have been hampered by a lack of data, as some data collection activities have been cut due to funding shortages.
Food prices and global risks
Jean-Martin Bauer, director of food security at WFP, said food prices could come under pressure worldwide, not just in the 45 countries surveyed. “This also depends on the choices of exporting countries. It is very important to avoid a situation where major countries stop exporting food,” he said. “At the regional level, there certainly could be high prices and problems with food access.”
In the UK and Europe, farmers have already warned of the impact of extreme heat and lack of rain on crops, while retailers are bracing for higher prices.
