Ukraine Holds Ground Against Russian Advances but Struggles With Ballistic Missiles
John T Psaropoulos | Al Jazeera English
Ukraine has effectively stalled Russian ground advances by disrupting logistics, but its air defenses remain vulnerable to ballistic missiles. President Zelenskyy describes these missiles as Moscow's 'final argument,' noting that Russia produces 120 per month, double the U.S. output of Patriot interceptors. Despite battlefield gains and long-range strikes deep into Russia, Ukraine struggles to counter ballistic missiles, which it intercepts at only 27%.
Over recent days, Ukraine has significantly improved its ability to impede the flow of Russian manpower and logistics to the front line, from the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions to the eastern front, forcing the Russian military into a stalemate, according to battlefield analysts.
At the same time, Ukraine has continued striking oil refineries and ammunition factories deep inside Russian territory, weakening Moscow's war effort. Sensing growing strength, Ukrainian forces even attacked the city of St. Petersburg while President Vladimir Putin was there for a high-level economic forum.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote an open letter to Putin, stating: “Your resources are severely depleted. You will not have enough money and political power to continue buying the loyalty of Russians as you have done for the past 26 years.” Zelenskyy also invited Putin for direct dialogue. Moscow has not officially responded.
However, Zelenskyy acknowledged that Russia still holds an advantage in one area: ballistic missiles. “He hopes ballistic missiles will do what everything else failed to do,” he wrote.
According to data Ukraine published at the Ukraine-NATO Council, Russia produces 120 ballistic missiles per month — double the number of Patriot interceptors the United States produces. The effectiveness of this weapon was demonstrated on June 2, when Russia launched a combined force of 656 drones and 73 missiles at civilian areas in Ukraine, killing 23 people and wounding at least 130.
Ukraine's Air Force reported successfully intercepting 91.7% of drones and 90.6% of cruise missiles but only 27% of ballistic missiles. Deputy Defense Minister Serhiy Beskrestnov of Ukraine disclosed that Russia maintains a strategic reserve of 180-250 Iskander ballistic missiles, unlike other missile types typically used within months of production.
“Ballistic missiles are Russia’s final argument in this war,” Zelenskyy wrote, calling on the United States to allow Ukraine to produce Patriot interceptors under license. Washington refused, but Zelenskyy pledged to produce a Ukrainian version of the Patriot system by the end of 2027.
On the eastern front, Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps announced on May 31 that it had established fire control over the cities of Luhansk, Starobilsk, Alchevsk, Bryanka, and Kadiivka — all located 50-90 kilometers deep inside occupied Luhansk — and could strike armored vehicles and ammunition depots at the Russian border, 205 kilometers away. Russian military correspondents confirmed Ukraine's capability.
Ukraine has also begun striking training centers. The commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brovdi, said his forces hit the Tryokhizbenko training ground of Russia's 3rd Army Group in Luhansk, causing at least 30 casualties.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, assessed that Russia had gained only 104 square kilometers of territory this year, but after reviewing new evidence, the figure was revised down to 40.64 square kilometers. During the same period, Russia lost control of 281.1 square kilometers of occupied territory. The open-source intelligence project DeepState estimated Russia gained only 14 square kilometers in May — its worst performance since September 2023.
“There are almost no safe roads left for the occupiers in the south and east of our country,” Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed that Moscow had clearly heard Zelenskyy's message, describing the Ukrainian leader's intention as “to recapture these lands.” Lavrov also expressed disappointment that the United States under President Donald Trump had not maintained the neutral stance promised at the Alaska summit in August 2025.
In a long-range strike campaign on May 30, Ukraine destroyed a ballistic missile launcher and two Tupolev-142 long-range strategic bombers at the Taganrog air base on the Sea of Azov. Over the past weekend, Ukraine struck the Saratov and Rostov oil refineries, followed by the Ilsky plant — one of Russia's largest — and the Novoshakhtinsky plant. Just ahead of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Ukraine attacked the St. Petersburg oil terminal and heavily damaged the Boykyi corvette moored in the city.
