According to the latest data from India’s Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.9 children per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population in the long term. This marks a sharp decline from 3.3 in the early 2000s.
Experts attribute the drop to several key factors, including better access to education and contraception, as well as rising child-rearing costs. Dipa Sinha, a development economist working on social policy in India, told Al Jazeera: “The total fertility rate usually declines when women in a society have better access to education, contraception, and more autonomy in family decision-making.” She also noted that declining infant mortality has reduced the desire for larger families. Official data shows India’s infant mortality rate fell from 30 per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 per 1,000 in 2024.
Fertility rate differences across states reflect these factors. The poorest northern states, such as Bihar (TFR 2.9) and Uttar Pradesh (TFR 2.6), have low education levels and high infant mortality. In contrast, the capital New Delhi recorded the lowest fertility rate in the country at 1.2 children per woman, while southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala posted rates of 1.3. These states typically have India’s best education and healthcare systems.
The decline poses a major challenge to the “demographic dividend” India has enjoyed since 2005, which was expected to last until 2055. During this period, the working-age population (15–64) outnumbers dependents—the elderly and children. However, with falling fertility, the labor force will shrink while the proportion of elderly rises. “If fewer children are born, then in about 30–40 years, India will have more elderly people unable to participate much in the labor market, creating a challenge for the workforce,” Sinha warned.
Despite these concerns, some politicians and religious groups are calling for higher birth rates. The leader of the hardline nationalist organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in February urged Hindu couples to have at least three to four children to prevent the community’s long-term decline. However, government data shows that Muslim fertility (Muslims made up 13% of the population in 2011) has declined faster than any other religious group, from 4.41 to 2.36 children per woman between 1992 and 2021, while Hindu fertility fell from 3.3 to 1.94.
While no national policy has been announced to address declining fertility, some states have taken action. Andhra Pradesh (TFR 1.4) announced a support of 30,000 rupees (about $360) for a third child and 40,000 rupees (about $480) for a fourth. The states of Goa, Karnataka, and Telangana have introduced state-funded in vitro fertilization (IVF) centers for first-time parents. Sinha argues that the government should respect individuals’ reproductive choices and develop policies to prepare for an aging population, including better healthcare, pensions, and social security.
This trend is not unique to India but is occurring across many Asian countries, with China’s fertility rate at 1.0, Taiwan at around 0.86, and South Korea at the world’s lowest of 0.75 children per woman (according to the United Nations).
