Future of Peacekeeping in Southern Lebanon Uncertain as UNIFIL Mandate Nears End

Beirut, Lebanon – As the clock ticks down on the mandate of UNIFIL, the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, strong international and local support remains for the mission in an area devastated by Israel's war since 2023, which has killed thousands.

Even if another peacekeeping force is established after UNIFIL's mandate ends later this year, it is likely to have fewer troops and be part of a regional arrangement.

“This requires the Lebanese state to have authority and a monopoly on weapons, Israel to withdraw and respect Lebanon's sovereignty, and Iran to refrain from interfering in Lebanon's internal affairs,” Lebanese political scientist Imad Salamey told Al Jazeera.

“International forces can monitor and support peace, but they cannot substitute for the domestic and regional consensus needed to sustain it.”

UNIFIL's mission began in 1978 during Lebanon's civil war. The force has often been accused by various parties of failing to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted 20 years ago. The resolution calls for Israel to withdraw behind the Blue Line – the de facto border between Israel, Lebanon, and the occupied Golan Heights – deploy the Lebanese Armed Forces to southern Lebanon, and disarm Hezbollah south of the Litani River.

However, implementation of Resolution 1701 – now the subject of direct US-mediated talks between Lebanon and Israel – has never been part of UNIFIL's original mandate.

“UNIFIL was never established … with the authority to enforce Resolution 1701 on any party at the border. Its mission is essentially to monitor, report, coordinate, and support the Lebanese Armed Forces,” Salamey said. “Expecting UNIFIL to enforce Hezbollah's disarmament or force Israel's withdrawal or end violations is beyond the enforcement authority it was actually given.”

Analysts point out that the decision to refuse to renew UNIFIL's mandate came after the US adopted Israel's stance opposing the force, allowing the Israeli military to operate in Lebanon without a monitoring presence.

UNIFIL Marginalized

While talks between Israel and Lebanon continue, UNIFIL has seen its role reduced to monitoring violations.

Israel and Lebanon reached a “framework agreement” on June 26. The agreement aims to establish so-called “pilot zones,” where Israel would withdraw its occupying forces and the Lebanese Army would take control and oversee the disarmament of Hezbollah.

UNIFIL has no role in these pilot zones, reflecting pressure from Israel and the US to sideline the force, according to analysts.

“In the latest Lebanon ceasefire agreement, the US and Israel have clearly marginalized UNIFIL, along with many other members of the international community,” David Wood, senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.

“UNIFIL has no key role on the ground in implementing the 'pilot zone' plan, and – unlike the previous ceasefire agreement – it no longer has a seat in the ceasefire monitoring mechanism.”

Wood said this approach reflects “a general US and Israeli skepticism” about UNIFIL's mission to keep Hezbollah away from southern Lebanon. However, he argued that excluding UNIFIL from any peace process also has downsides.

“In the past, UNIFIL has helped defuse confrontations between Lebanese and Israeli forces, such as the exchange of fire during the deployment of the Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh pilot zone,” Wood said.

“UNIFIL could resume this on-the-ground mediation role, along with monitoring functions, as short-term measures to prevent the situation in southern Lebanon from spiraling further out of control.”

Replacing UNIFIL

As UNIFIL's mandate nears its end, several countries have expressed readiness to contribute peacekeepers to any future force. Two European diplomats told Al Jazeera that their countries are discussing sending peacekeepers to any mission that replaces UNIFIL.

One proposal is that the UN Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO) could step in. However, UNTSO would be a much smaller force than UNIFIL, which had about 15,000 personnel at its peak and about 7,000 as of June 2026.

In June, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres presented three options to the Security Council with troop numbers ranging from 900 to 3,000.

Analysts remain uncertain about the form of the next peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon.

“It is difficult to know how an international force can help promote stability in southern Lebanon until the overall security agreement between Israel and Lebanon becomes clearer,” Wood said.

If the process is not accelerated, there are concerns about a security vacuum.

“If the Security Council allows a vacuum to emerge between the end of UNIFIL's mandate and the establishment of a new international force, it might be very difficult to fill that vacuum again,” Wood said.

Political scientist Salamey believes that a mere peacekeeping force cannot solve the larger problem of Hezbollah's weapons and Israel's continued occupation of southern Lebanon.

“Replacing UNIFIL with UNTSO, a multinational force, or a European force will make little difference without a broader political solution,” Salamey said.