From JCPOA exit to the 2026 deal: US-Iran relations deteriorate under Trump
Sarah Shamim
Tensions between the US and Iran have spiraled under Donald Trump’s presidency, from the JCPOA exit in 2018 to a full-blown war in 2026. A preliminary agreement is expected in Geneva, but key details remain undisclosed.
The United States and Iran are set to sign a preliminary agreement in Geneva on Friday (June 16, 2026) aimed at ending the US-Israel war against Iran, initiating a 60-day negotiation process, and restoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan, acting as a mediator, will host the signing ceremony in Switzerland. However, neither side has disclosed the details of the deal, leaving the extent of agreement on major issues unclear.
President Trump stated that Iran’s nuclear program will be part of the final agreement but did not mention earlier demands such as dismantling the ballistic missile program or ending support for proxy forces in the region. “The only thing that really matters to me is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said at the G7 summit in France on June 14.
Washington-Tehran relations have deteriorated since Trump’s first term, when he withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in May 2018. The US subsequently imposed new sanctions in August and November 2018, targeting Iran’s oil and banking sectors. In April 2019, Trump designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).
In May 2019, Iran announced its withdrawal from the JCPOA and intensified uranium enrichment. Tensions escalated following attacks in December 2019, when a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base killed a US contractor. The US retaliated by striking Kataib Hezbollah sites in Iraq and Syria.
On January 3, 2020, the US assassinated General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, via a drone strike in Baghdad. Iran retaliated by launching missiles at military bases in Iraq, causing traumatic brain injuries to over 100 US soldiers. The IRGC also shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, killing all 176 people on board.
From 2021 to 2024, indirect talks between Iran and the US in Vienna to revive the nuclear deal failed to achieve a breakthrough. In February 2025, after beginning his second term, Trump reinstated the “maximum pressure” policy on Iran but emphasized a preference for a diplomatic solution.
In May 2025, Trump claimed the two sides were “close to a deal” on nuclear issues but later criticized Iran over Houthi attacks. By June 13, 2025, Israel attacked Iran, a conflict lasting 12 days. The US entered the war on June 22, striking three Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran responded with missiles targeting a US base in Qatar. Trump declared a ceasefire on June 23.
In December 2025, the Iranian rial hit a record low of 1.42 million to the US dollar, sparking protests. In February 2026, Israel and the US launched a new war, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening moments, igniting a bloody conflict lasting months.
