China expands maritime patrols east of Taiwan, experts warn of blockade risk

Taipei, Taiwan – Chinese coast guard and civilian vessels are expanding their presence in waters east of Taiwan, raising fears that Beijing may be rehearsing a strategy to encircle and isolate the self-ruled island from external trade and support.

Throughout June and July, the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration and the coast guard conducted several patrols and “special maritime law enforcement operations,” according to official government notices.

While China regularly patrols the Taiwan Strait – a waterway averaging about 180 km (112 miles) separating China's coast from the main island of Taiwan – analysts say this is the first time the patrols have moved east of Taiwan with such frequency.

K. Tristan Tang, a non-resident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research in the United States, said this shift carries strategic and symbolic significance for Taiwan. “Beijing is signaling its intention to extend its claimed administrative jurisdiction to the waters east of Taiwan, thereby encircling the island rather than merely eroding its space in the strait,” Tang told Al Jazeera.

According to Taipei, the “law enforcement operations” include area patrols and demands that commercial vessels provide information about their origin and destination.

The eastward shift also comes amid a notable increase in Chinese maritime activity around Taiwan and its outlying islands. Taiwan recorded 55 sightings of Chinese coast guard and research vessels in June, up from 30 in May. These sightings include Chinese activity near the Dongsha Islands, also known as Pratas, an uninhabited island chain controlled by Taiwan in the South China Sea.

Beijing says these activities are a response to talks between Japan and the Philippines on establishing maritime boundaries, which Chinese state media say infringe on China's “territorial sovereignty as well as maritime rights and interests.” Some waters around southern Japan and northern Philippines overlap with Taiwan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which extends 200 nautical miles (370 km) from its coastline.

On July 4, China's coast guard said law enforcement activities in waters east of Taiwan would continue to “resolutely safeguard China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

China considers Taiwan a province – meaning it also sees Taiwan's EEZ as under its jurisdiction. It also claims sovereignty over vast adjacent waters such as the South China Sea and the East China Sea, areas disputed with Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei.

China's Foreign Ministry previously told reporters that the activities near Taiwan are “legitimate actions to exercise China's jurisdiction, safeguard regional stability, and maintain maritime order in accordance with the law.” The Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C. did not immediately respond to Al Jazeera's request for comment.

Gray-zone tactics

Ray Powell, founder and director of Sea Light, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University, said he views the increased patrols as part of “China's anaconda strategy to squeeze Taiwan one loop at a time.”

China has pledged to unify Taiwan by peaceful means or force, and it employs a range of pressure tactics – from cutting access to international bodies like the World Health Organization, to incursions by drones and fighter jets, and accusations of cyberattacks, according to Taiwan's National Security Bureau.

Known as “gray-zone” tactics, these actions aim to drain Taiwan's limited resources and weaken morale, persuading its 23 million people that annexation is inevitable, according to Taiwanese officials. Security analysts like Powell have warned that “law enforcement” activities could quickly escalate into a blockade or quarantine. Taiwan is especially vulnerable to such pressure because as an island it imports nearly all its energy.

“One day, we might look back and say this could be considered the beginning of a quarantine,” Powell told Al Jazeera. “Today it's a challenge over the radio; what's the next phase? When do we start seeing them stop and inspect ships or divert them? It's not a huge step to start tightening the screws on Taiwan for things they need, like LNG,” Powell said.

China has shown that a blockade could lie ahead. Since 2022, Beijing has regularly held large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, including a simulated blockade during its last drill in December. While coast guard activities are less visible than naval patrols, Chauluen Lin, an expert on asymmetric warfare at Taipei's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said this force can be seen as China's “second navy.” The Chinese coast guard is not a civilian police force; it falls under the Central Military Commission as part of the People's Armed Police.

The Chinese coast guard patrols were unusual enough to draw a rare joint response from the UK, Germany, and France. In late June, the three countries said the actions “threaten regional stability, freedom of navigation, and international maritime safety.” “We reiterate our opposition to any unilateral change to the status quo, especially by threat or use of force or coercion,” the statement read. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week that Washington disagrees with the expanded patrols and views them as undermining regional stability.

U.S. distracted

William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that Beijing may be taking advantage of the U.S. being distracted by the war in Iran and a president with an ambivalent stance on Taiwan. Although the U.S. does not recognize Taiwan as a country, it is committed to helping the island defend itself. Much of that support comes in the form of arms sales, training, and intelligence sharing.

U.S. President Donald Trump has also raised doubts about these commitments by saying that American arms sales could be a “bargaining chip” with China after meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in May. “The external environment has shifted fundamentally in the Indo-Pacific, at least from their perspective, with Washington very focused and engaged in the Middle East,” Yang said. “At the same time, the U.S. lacks the capacity to truly examine or respond to the expansion of Chinese maritime activities in these sensitive waters,” he added.