PM Carney: A Strong First Year, Now Must Turn Promises Into Action

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney took office last year amid a series of pressure moves from the southern neighbor. Then-U.S. President Donald Trump had imposed tariffs on Canadian exports and threatened to turn the neighbor into the 51st state of the US.

These actions were particularly severe given that Canada has extensive trade and security ties with the US, exporting nearly 80% of its goods to this market and often aligning with Washington's foreign policy and strategic positions.

Everything turned upside down when Trump took office, and Canada under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was among the first countries hit by US tariffs.

After a year of dealing with an unpredictable US president, experts assess that Carney has "stood firm and resolute," not only in the face of Trump's threats but also domestic criticism.

"The most notable part of the past year is that he avoided a shock while displaying skilled diplomacy, not rushing into a trade and investment deal with the US as many other countries did," said Brett House, senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto.

"Promises from this president are completely worthless, and the biggest achievement in the first year was standing firm and resolute against internal critics," House told Al Jazeera.

In fact, Carney has leveraged Trump's attacks on allies and other countries to reshape Canada's foreign policy and global standing.

As the US is no longer a pillar of the rules-based order, and there is a "deep fracture" due to changes in Washington, "Carney has focused on building domestically and diversifying externally, as Ottawa's longtime dependencies and relationships have now become weaknesses," said Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

"And he is doing this with speed, scale, and ambition unseen in recent years," Nadjibulla said.

'Fracture' in Global Order

This stance was evident in January, when Carney said in a speech in Davos that there is a "fracture" in the rules-based global order and that middle powers like Canada and others must step up strategically to address geopolitical tensions.

But it was realized in actions before Davos, when he approached countries that were important trade partners but had frozen relations due to political tensions under his predecessor Trudeau.

For example, Carney invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G7 meeting in Canada to kickstart re-establishing relations with New Delhi, which had been frozen since Trudeau accused India of involvement in the murder of a Sikh separatist activist on Canadian soil in 2023.

Carney also recalibrated relations with China, which had been tense since Canadian authorities detained a senior executive of Chinese telecom giant Huawei when she was in transit at Vancouver International Airport in December 2018. China retaliated for the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, carried out at the request of the US government, by detaining two Canadian citizens.

Carney also strengthened ties with Japan, South Korea, Australia and other nations, ensuring coordination on security and economic issues, while bringing Canada closer to Europe, Nadjibulla pointed out.

Domestic Pivot

During last year's election campaign, Carney "positioned himself as moderate and centrist, and worked hard to distance himself from the image of Justin Trudeau," said Sanjay Jeram, chair of the political science department at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, Canada.

"He didn't seem very interested in issues beyond economics, international relations, and trade, and even when asked, he would sidestep those questions and steer the conversation back to what he believed was his true purpose. That could be political strategy, or both," Jeram said.

Under that pragmatic veneer, "Carney accepts the world and economy as it is, not as we hope," allowing him to be judged on practical measures, Jeram said, alluding to criticism that Carney is overlooking concerns about political interference or human rights in relationships with foreign partners.

"Canadians have accepted that stance so far," Jeram added.

In fact, Carney's approval ratings are rising. According to an Ipsos poll in March for Global News, 58% of Canadians approve of him, up 10% from a year ago, while 33% disapprove.

While there have been significant paper steps to remove federal barriers to facilitate business and domestic trade, there are also concerns about certain policy directions. For example, a major projects bill aims to accelerate large-scale infrastructure projects, but critics worry it weakens the importance of consultation, especially with Indigenous communities where these projects may pass through.

"Carney recognizes we need more infrastructure to diversify trade," Nadjibulla from the Asia Pacific Foundation said.

As he enters his second year, Carney's main challenge is whether he can turn the announcements of the first year into reality.

One of the biggest challenges this year is successfully completing the review of the trade agreement between the US, Canada, and Mexico, known as USMCA, starting July 1, which has helped protect Canadian exports from US tariffs.

"The US has signaled that a successful review may depend on Canada aligning its external tariffs with US tariffs, but that contradicts Canada's efforts," said House from the University of Toronto, especially as Canada has arranged deals with China on electric vehicles and agriculture.

Nadjibulla added that "2026 will be tougher, because it's the year of implementation and delivery, especially in the context of US-Canada dynamics."