US-Iran deal: Sunday signing or 'coming days'?

After more than 100 days of conflict that triggered a global energy crisis and darkened the world economic outlook, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the initial phase of a peace agreement with Iran would be signed on Sunday (June 14). However, Tehran dismissed this deadline, saying the signing could take place in 'the coming days'.

The preliminary deal, described as a memorandum of understanding (MoU), would extend the current ceasefire for an additional 60 days, according to media reports.

U.S. and Iranian positions

On Thursday (June 12), shortly after threatening to seize control of Iran's Kharg Island—which handles 90% of the country's crude oil exports—Trump said he had called off strikes on Iran because a deal was near and could be signed over the weekend.

The next day, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the MoU with the U.S. had 'never been so close.' Trump later shared Araghchi's post on his Truth Social platform.

Iranian state media then reported details of what they claimed was in the document with the U.S., noting that it also included Lebanon, where Israel is conducting airstrikes and a ground invasion in the south, within the agreement.

Trump earlier complained that 'the terms Iran is leaking to the fake news sites have NOTHING to do with the terms already agreed to in writing' and warned Iran's leaders to 'get their act together, quickly.'

Then, on Saturday (June 13), Trump said in a social media post that a deal with Iran would be signed on Sunday and the Strait of Hormuz would immediately be 'opened to all.'

However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the MoU would not be signed on Sunday but did not rule out that it could happen in 'the coming days', according to state media. 'The Islamabad memorandum, which is being pursued, focuses on ending the war, and at this stage, it has been decided that there will be no discussion on the nuclear issue,' he said, referring to the document negotiated with Pakistan's mediation. 'We must wait for the exact timing of the signing of the memorandum; although it will not be tomorrow, the possibility of it happening in the coming days is not excluded,' he added. 'However, because of the instability of the other side, we must be cautious about any statements related to this process.'

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X on Saturday that the finalization of the U.S.-Iran deal was expected within the next 24 hours with 'the electronic signing of the peace deal immediately thereafter, followed by technical-level talks next week.' He thanked the U.S. and Iran for their commitment in the negotiations and those in the region for their support. 'We are confident that this historic peace deal will lay a solid foundation for lasting peace,' he concluded.

Al Jazeera correspondent Mohamed Vall in Tehran said statements from the U.S. and Iran indicate that the signing of the memorandum of understanding could happen soon, although it is unclear whether it will be electronic or in person. 'In the past few days, there were reports of preparations in Switzerland for a direct signing ceremony, but that is no longer being discussed. The Pakistanis now describe it as an electronic signature while the Iranians do not even confirm that for tomorrow,' he said. 'So there is a degree of ambiguity here, not only about the timing but also about the content.'

Key elements of the potential deal

Trump on Saturday described the deal with Iran in capital letters as a 'nuclear weapon wall' and said Tehran would agree to never acquire nuclear weapons, 'whether through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement.' Once the first phase is signed, the Strait of Hormuz will be 'opened to all,' he wrote, adding that 'when things quiet down', the U.S. would 'take the nuclear dust' in Iran and 'destroy it'. Trump uses the term 'nuclear dust' to refer to enriched uranium.

Araghchi said on Friday that the agreement includes 14 points, the first of which is the lifting of the U.S. blockade on Iran's ports. He said the MoU calls for an end to hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, and an agreement not to launch war or use force. Iran's frozen assets would be released upon signing the MoU, he added. Araghchi said the nuclear issue would be discussed in the second phase and that Iran's position is that its enriched uranium should be diluted in water. He added that the second phase of negotiations would also focus on lifting U.S. sanctions.

According to Vall, both sides are mixing what is in the MoU with their ultimate goals, likely because both are trying to sell this to the public and perhaps to international parties. 'President Trump is talking about the nuclear issue along with the MoU, although we have been told that is something to be addressed during the 60-day negotiation period,' he said. 'The Iranians are also talking about charging fees at the Strait of Hormuz and releasing assets, etc.' 'In short, we now know that the MoU is only the first step, and the key points will be discussed in the 60 days after it is signed,' he said.

Key sticking points of the deal

Iran's nuclear program

After decades of hostility, Tehran's nuclear program remains the central point of contention between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. has made clear that Iran must not possess, purchase, or develop nuclear weapons—or even have the capability to do so. Conversely, Iran maintains that its program is for civilian purposes, permitted under international conventions, but may be willing to negotiate limits on nuclear activities if sanctions are lifted.

Tim Constantine, a writer for The Washington Times, said Trump will likely present any deal that prevents Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons as a victory. He told Al Jazeera that avoiding a wider war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or calming markets would be 'good side effects' but Trump's 'number one priority' is 'Iran not having a nuclear weapon'.

Sanctions

Iran is the most sanctioned country in the world. Decades-long U.S. sanctions have crippled its economy, banking system, and oil exports. Iran has insisted on ending the sanctions regime while the U.S. has shown willingness to work toward its phased and conditional removal, but differences on how to achieve this remain.

Iran's frozen assets

The fate of billions of dollars of Iranian funds frozen abroad is another sticking point. Tehran wants access to these assets as part of any deal, arguing that the money belongs to Iran and is needed for its economic recovery, especially after damage from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. However, U.S. negotiators have been reluctant to agree to a large-scale release of funds without significant concessions on Iran's nuclear program.

Extending the ceasefire to Lebanon

Israel's bombardment and occupation of nearly one-fifth of Lebanon is a major sticking point in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, and Tehran is pushing for a broader regional ceasefire, including an end to attacks on its allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. So far, a U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has not stopped bombings or the ground invasion in southern Lebanon for even a single day. In the past week, Iran escalated measures over Israel's continued breach of the peace deal by firing missiles into the country after Israel again bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold.

Strait of Hormuz

Iran has closed the strategic waterway, which is the only outlet to the open sea for Gulf oil producers. Before the war, 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply was transported through the strait. Iran has occasionally allowed ships from countries it considers 'friendly' to pass through the strait but this week reaffirmed that the waterway was closed after new U.S. strikes. Iran views the Strait of Hormuz as its most important leverage in negotiations with the U.S., and it has stated it will not give up control of the strait. The U.S. has imposed a corresponding naval blockade on Iran's ports to pressure Tehran.

On Thursday morning, Trump still insisted the U.S. controlled the strait, even as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained firm control and maritime traffic was again stalled. Then, on Saturday, he said the strait would be 'opened to all' but did not specify whether the U.S. naval blockade on Iran's ports would end. Tehran, however, maintains that the strait is not in international waters but runs through Iran's and Oman's territorial waters, and thus, it is considering charging transiting vessels in the form of providing insurance or other shipping services.

World reactions

United States

There was almost no reaction from Trump's fellow Republicans as expectations of an imminent deal with Iran grew. Some lawmakers, however, continued to criticize Tehran, saying it must never be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Republican Senator Ron Johnson said in a video posted by London-based outlet Iran International that a nuclear-armed Iran would be an 'existential threat' to the U.S. Democratic lawmakers also expressed skepticism about Trump's planned peace deal with Iran. 'The president says the war is over. I hope he's right,' California Senator Adam Schiff wrote on X. 'But we've heard this before. Along with countless broken promises.' 'He started new wars, but did not reduce costs. And that has deeply harmed the American people,' he added. Meanwhile, Democratic Representative Seth Moulton described the potential deal as 'essentially a surrender document.'

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed Trump's efforts to end the war in a phone call on Saturday. 'The prime minister expressed support for President Trump's efforts to end the conflict with Iran, welcoming the progress made and emphasizing the importance of ensuring any deal brings lasting and sustainable peace,' he said in a statement.

Israel

Reports of an imminent Iran-U.S. deal sparked an initial backlash in Israeli media as some reporters and commentators expressed frustration over a deal they feared would further empower Tehran. Writing in Maariv, Israeli commentator Ben Caspit argued that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had won important battles but lost the larger struggle with Iran. 'The only event outweighing the military victories we have achieved in recent years against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran is the political defeat we suffered immediately afterward,' Caspit wrote. In Haaretz, commentator Zvi Bar'el argued that Iran came to the negotiating table from a position of strength, 'armed with strategic pressure levers influencing the regional and global economy,' forcing the U.S. to improvise rather than pursue a coherent overall strategy. Iran, he argued, had moved beyond merely seeking survival and once again asserted itself as a regional power.

Al Jazeera correspondent Nida Ibrahim in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank said Israelis cannot stop the progress of these negotiations toward a potential Iran-U.S. deal, but they still want to separate the two fronts—the front with Iran and the front with Lebanon. 'If you read between the lines in the analyses of some military analysts, there appears to be a fear that Israel will have to make concessions when it comes to its attacks and invasion of Lebanon as part of that deal,' she said. 'Just last night, the Israeli military struck 70 targets inside Lebanon, bringing the total to 400 in the past week, so the belief is they are trying to get as much done as possible before they cannot anymore,' she noted on Sunday. She added that a meeting was expected to be held by the Israeli security cabinet on Sunday evening to discuss the implications and details of the potential signing of the memorandum of understanding. 'But the (Israeli) government will face very difficult questions, especially when it comes to the war in Iran,' she said.