A precarious peace deal between the United States and Iran faces a serious threat as Israel escalates intense airstrikes in southern Lebanon. The agreement, signed earlier this week, triggered a 60-day negotiation period for both sides to reach a formal peace deal. Talks were set to start in Switzerland on Friday (June 19) but have been postponed.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance canceled his flight to Switzerland Thursday night after Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon killed at least 18 people. Iran subsequently stated its negotiators were not ready to begin dialogue until the agreement—which includes Lebanon in a ceasefire—shows signs of being implemented.
Israel began near-daily attacks on Lebanon in early March, following Hezbollah rocket fire into Israel in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Tehran. Israel currently occupies one-fifth of Lebanese territory. More than 3,000 people have been killed and over 1 million displaced.
The first clause of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the U.S. and Iran calls for “an immediate and permanent cessation of military activities on all fronts, including Lebanon,” along with a commitment to guarantee “the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.” However, the document does not mention Israel, making interpretation and enforcement difficult. Israel and Hezbollah are not signatories.
Analysts say the burden now rests on U.S. President Donald Trump. Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, commented: “If Trump wants the deal to survive, he must use U.S. leverage—not just to reprimand Netanyahu but to force him to stop the war in Lebanon.”
On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared the military would not withdraw from occupied Lebanese land, saying “the battle is not over.” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz insisted troops would “stay in security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza for an indefinite period.” Israeli officials, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have even stated that “all of Lebanon must be burned.”
Tensions between Washington and Tel Aviv have risen as President Trump criticized Israel’s bombing tactics in Lebanon for causing too many civilian casualties. Vice President Vance also rebuked Israeli ministers opposed to the deal, saying: “You are a country of 9 million people. You cannot kill every national security problem.”
Tahani Mustafa, a research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, assessed that Israel may seek to sabotage the deal, particularly as Prime Minister Netanyahu faces domestic political pressure and upcoming elections in October. She argued the only way to keep talks alive is “to apply hard pressure on Israel—but Washington seems to lack the political will to do so.”
Vaez warned that continued casualties in Lebanon will quickly derail the negotiations. “Iran could decouple the Lebanon issue at some point, but not when the ink is still wet on the MoU,” he concluded.
