Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Sign Defense Pact: Who Joins Next?

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a joint defense pact in Mecca, which analysts say represents a step toward a new security architecture in the region. The pact, named the Mecca Joint Deterrence Agreement, was signed on Friday and builds on a bilateral defense understanding reached between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan a year earlier.

Regional officials suggest the pact could expand to include other nations, reinforcing its role as a collective security and deterrence mechanism. So who could join next, and what would an expanded alliance mean for regional security?

What does the pact entail?

At the heart of the agreement is a NATO-style clause: an attack on any member state is considered an attack on all, although specific details have yet to be finalized. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said allies would decide through consultation on the level, form, and format of support in the event of an attack, but no country would be considered a threat unless a member is attacked.

Turkish and Saudi officials have stressed that the pact is not intended to replace any other strategic alliance. Turkey, a NATO member, also stated that the agreement does not target any country, including Iran.

Who could join next?

Egypt is the only country publicly mentioned by an official from a signatory state as a potential participant. Foreign Minister Fidan called Egypt a "natural partner" and expected Cairo to formally join after "technical issues" are resolved. "I believe that in the next phase, Egypt will be in the alliance," Fidan said. "We have been acting together as if we were members of the alliance."

Ali Bakir, a professor of international relations at Qatar University, said Egypt's inclusion would "significantly increase the political weight, regional influence, and operational effectiveness" of the pact if it materializes.

What could hold Egypt back?

Egypt has good working relations with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, and sits with them in the R4 group consulting on regional issues. Cairo has also recently strengthened military ties with Ankara, despite past tensions over the Egyptian military's ouster of President Mohamed Morsi in 2013, the Libya conflict, and disputes over gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean.

However, analysts say Cairo may worry about potential military obligations from a binding defense pact with countries whose interests do not always align, as well as the impact on existing peace treaties. Karim Elgendy, a senior research fellow at Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme, said: "Egypt would likely join only if the pact's language protects aid relations with Washington, does not undermine existing alliances and peace treaties, and preserves its discretion over when and where to fight."

According to Elgendy, the technical issues holding back Egypt could be "legal and operational." "Legally, Egypt needs to know exactly what the commitment protects, and wants to ensure that a signature is not understood as a commitment against Israel or as siding with Ankara on Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean."

Ahmed Aboudouh, a research fellow at Chatham House, argued that while Egypt shares basic security concerns, it "does not share the threat perception" of the three signatories. "Cairo's preference is to engage in overlapping, narrowly scoped, and issue-specific regional security arrangements rather than being bound by defense commitments with high risks/costs."

Which other countries might join?

Some officials suggest other Gulf states could participate. Former Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani expressed hope that all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members would "actively join." Besides Saudi Arabia, the GCC includes Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and the UAE.

Fidan also spoke of expanding the alliance, saying several unnamed countries had expressed interest. "Under the president's vision, we should not limit ourselves to three countries. We should develop, and if necessary, bring all countries under this umbrella."

Among Gulf states, Elgendy believes "the first notable names are Qatar and Kuwait." Both are "close to all three signatories" and have "the strongest incentive to buy additional insurance" after feeling "exposed" during the US-Israel war with Iran and Israel's attack on Doha in September. Bakir also identified Qatar as the most "natural" Gulf state to join, with Kuwait as another candidate. He added that Azerbaijan, Syria, and Jordan could also join "relatively quickly."

However, Elgendy was skeptical about the pact becoming a broad bloc. "This seems like a voluntary alliance, developing case by case, based on each capital's risk calculations."