Sudan Accuses Ethiopia of Backing RSF Drone Strikes as Regional Tensions Escalate

Sudan's government has filed a complaint with the United Nations Security Council and the African Union's Peace and Security Council, alleging that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — which have been fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023 — are using Ethiopian territory to launch drone attacks on civilian targets, including power stations.

According to Sudan border expert Abdul Kareem Al-Almin Ahmed, the alleged Ethiopian support for the RSF has caused divisions within the SAF over how to respond. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Al-Almin said: "Mutual accusations are frequent and occur almost daily, and tension within the Sudanese military has reached such a level that some voices in the Sudanese army and allied forces are calling for Sudan to declare war on Ethiopia over these interventions."

Drone strikes attributed to the RSF have inflicted heavy damage on civilian infrastructure in SAF-held areas. More than 90 percent of power stations in Sudanese cities have ceased operating as a result of the drone attacks. Al-Almin said the technical capabilities of these weapons point to significant outside support. "These are mysterious drones with long ranges, and nearly the whole of Sudan's territory is now being violated by these drones. That confirms they are drones with special characteristics in terms of long-range flight and high destructive power," he added.

A detailed report drafted by Sudan's Foreign Ministry in coordination with military intelligence alleges that 70 separate attacks involving 187 suicide drones were launched from Ethiopian territory between February and October. The frequency of attacks has tended to rise, with 28 attacks using 97 drones in October alone.

The use of armed drones has had devastating consequences for Sudanese civilians, with 13 million people displaced and thousands facing the risk of famine because of the war. According to a report by the Transitional Sovereignty Council — a body linked to de facto leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the SAF — between February 15 and October 27, drone attacks killed 176 Sudanese soldiers and 484 civilians. The report identified Asosa airport in western Ethiopia, the Kurmuk-Gizen border area and the Bahir Dar air base in Amhara as specific launch sites.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Saturday that he was horrified by the use of drones in the war and condemned the devastating impact on civilians. A drone attack on displaced families in Wad el-Mahi, near the Ethiopian border, on October 3 killed 26 women and four children. Another attack in Nyala in Sudan's Darfur region on October 26 killed at least 21 people and wounded at least 40.

The Sudanese military has repeatedly accused Ethiopia's government of supporting the RSF. Addis Ababa denies the allegations and in turn accuses Sudan's government of backing rebel groups linked to the Tigray People's Liberation Front.

Tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia extend beyond drone attacks and allegations of support for rebel groups. The two countries are also at odds over water resources and regional strategic alliances. Long-running friction between Sudan and Ethiopia centers on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that Addis Ababa has built on the Nile. Egypt and Sudan rely heavily on the Nile for water, and as downstream states they fear the GERD threatens their national security and argue that the dam violates international law.

Al-Almin said: "The Sudan-Ethiopia file is a complex one in which many factors are intertwined: the Renaissance Dam issue first of all... and the rapprochement between the Sudanese military and the Egyptian government." He added that Sudan's government is also angered by the RSF's alleged receipt of support from Ethiopia.

However, Badr Hassan Al-Shafei, a professor of African studies and conflict resolution expert, argues that fears of an escalation that could harm both Sudan and Ethiopia are preventing a full-scale confrontation between the two countries. In a study published by the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, Al-Shafei wrote: "Khartoum's interest lies in the stability of its eastern neighbor to avoid security threats and refugee waves. Khartoum fears that providing military support to Tigray would cause the situation on the border to explode, potentially increasing displacement that Sudan's border states cannot bear, especially as the war against Hemedti continues."

A direct military confrontation with Addis Ababa would place severe strain on Sudan's already exhausted military apparatus, which remains engaged in fierce battles with the RSF in the country's southeast. Ultimately, the leaders of both countries are aware of the catastrophic potential of expanding the battlefield beyond their own borders.

"If the Sudanese army opens a war front with Ethiopia, this would not benefit them and would cause regional disorder. Sudan could find itself fighting on two fronts: against the Rapid Support Forces occupying part of Sudan, and against the Ethiopian army with its capabilities and reach across the border," Al-Amin wrote.