Brazil Unveils First Global Roadmap for Phasing Out Fossil Fuels

The Brazilian government on 9 October published the first global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels, with the message that every country can begin reducing its dependence on coal, oil and gas now, without waiting for new technology or major economic shifts.

According to the Guardian, the roadmap was released by Brazil — host of the UN climate conference COP30 held in Belém, in the Amazon state of Pará — ahead of COP31, expected to take place in Antalya, Turkey, this month. The document is expected to help shift the focus of the annual COP summits from negotiating a global agreement toward implementing goals already agreed.

André Corrêa do Lago, Brazil's COP30 president, described the roadmaps as "implementation documents." He told the Guardian: "There is a group of people who negotiate and a group who implement. The problem at many COPs is that we think the negotiators also need to coordinate implementation — that is not right." According to him, finance, transport, energy and infrastructure ministries need to take up the roadmap and build out how it is carried out in each country.

At COP30 last November, fierce debate broke out over whether the final package of decisions should include a commitment on fossil fuels. As a compromise, the presidency agreed to draw up two roadmaps: one on "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner," and one on halting and reversing deforestation.

These two roadmaps are separate from the similarly named plans of some governments, which were discussed at a meeting in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April, where nearly 60 countries formed a "coalition of the willing" outside the COP framework to draw up their own national roadmaps. Germany, France and the Netherlands were among the countries that published national plans. The roadmaps under the Santa Marta initiative are far more specific and prescriptive than Brazil's, because each document is drafted by the national government responsible for carrying out the policy.

Brazil's roadmap sets out only feasible steps. The document is non-binding, has no deadlines or action milestones, and leaves it to each country to "diagnose" its own level of dependence on fossil fuels and to choose measures for reducing it. Corrêa do Lago said: "Each country will have a different pace [in moving away from fossil fuels] — it is very important to focus on diagnosing each country's circumstances. Based on that diagnosis, they can choose policy levers and implement the transition."

Among the steps Brazil proposes is for oil and gas producers to urgently cut flaring and venting at extraction sites. Methane is a greenhouse gas 80 times more potent at warming than carbon dioxide, so this measure would have an immediate impact. Other steps include reducing subsidies for the use or production of fossil fuels and boosting renewable energy production.

The deforestation roadmap highlights the large volumes of funding needed to support poor countries with major forest areas such as the Amazon, the Congo Basin and the rainforests of Southeast Asia, which are threatened by fire and palm oil extraction. According to the roadmap, citing UN data, an estimated $300 billion a year is needed for forests by 2030 and $500 billion a year by 2050, while current levels are only about $85 billion a year.

At COP30 last year, Brazil established the Tropical Forests Forever Facility to conserve forests, with the UK contributing £400 million and other countries pledging about $7 billion in total. The deforestation roadmap also stresses the importance of adjusting trade between forest countries and consumer countries, given that there are currently very few checks to stop irresponsible companies from selling goods from deforested areas.

The release of the roadmap comes more than a week after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term. Over the past four years under Lula, deforestation has fallen by about 70%. His defeated opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro — son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro — was forecast to revive his father's policy of rampant exploitation of the Amazon if elected.

Scientists, however, say the roadmap is limited. Professor Joeri Rogelj, who studies climate science and policy at Imperial College London, said Brazil's roadmaps were a step forward but "not enough to spell out the pace of change needed, because there are no timelines or key targets." He said: "Because of this shortcoming, they still leave much to be guessed about what needs to be done to meet the ultimate goal of the Paris Agreement: keeping global warming below 2°C, and preferably 1.5°C, in order to avoid dangerous climate harm."