Senegal emerges as a genuine World Cup 2026 contender – but at a cost

Senegal coach Pape Thiaw has made no secret of his ambition for the upcoming World Cup in North America. “If I had even a second of doubt about our ability to win the World Cup with Senegal, I would step down,” he said after a match in March.

That statement is notable on two counts: an African team openly declaring it can win the World Cup, and the claim being met with respect rather than ridicule – a measure of the regard the football world holds for Senegal.

“It’s not just talk. The players and coach believe they can win the World Cup,” said Babacar Diarra, a French-Senegalese freelance journalist, speaking to Al Jazeera. “But the opening match against France will show just how good this team really is.”

On the African continent, Senegal has little left to prove about its quality. It is the most consistent side in Africa over the past decade: a simple statistic confirms it – in the last ten years, Senegal has either won the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) every time it has participated, or lost to the eventual champion.

Recent disappointments have come only at the World Cup, and each time with an explanation. In 2018, they became the first team in tournament history eliminated on fair-play rules after accumulating too many yellow cards in the group stage. At Qatar 2022, Senegal – missing star Sadio Mane through injury – lost to England in the round of 16.

“With this golden generation – Sadio Mane, Kalidou Koulibaly, Idrissa Gana Gueye and Edouard Mendy – this is the moment. Now or never,” Diarra said.

‘The striking paradox’ of Senegalese football

With a population of just 20 million, Senegal produces young football talent at a scale far exceeding larger countries such as Nigeria (242 million), Ethiopia (138 million), Egypt (120 million) and DR Congo (117 million). Over the past two decades, numerous modern academies have sprung up, featuring perfect training pitches, dormitories, schools and physiotherapy facilities. Each year, they send players to the top five European leagues.

Of the 28 Senegal players selected for the 2025 AFCON, 13 came from Senegalese academies such as Generation Foot, Diambars, Dakar Sacre Coeur and Casa Sports. While good for the national team, the establishment of these academies has also drawn criticism for exploitation.

Diambars once partnered with Olympique de Marseille, Dakar Sacre Coeur with Olympique Lyonnais (both partnerships have ended) – but the most prominent relationship is the long-standing cooperation between Generation Foot and FC Metz. The 23-year agreement saw Metz invest over €10 million ($11.6 million) to build and run the academy, in return for first option to sign the best talents.

Players like Mane, former Arsenal striker Emmanuel Adebayor, Crystal Palace winger Ismaila Sarr, and Tottenham midfielder Pape Matar Sarr, among others, all came to Metz via the Generation Foot academy.

However, the numbers surrounding these transactional relationships have caused resentment. The 13 AFCON players from academy backgrounds brought in just €100,000 ($116,000) in transfer fees for their academies across 13 transfers. European clubs then sold them on, turning that investment into a total of €81.2 million ($94 million). Over their careers, these players generated a combined €411 million ($477 million) in transfer fees. This growing revenue gap is increasingly seen as blatant economic injustice.

“On one hand, young players receive good education and top-class infrastructure,” explained Mamadou Ndiaye, a loyal fan. “But we should not forget that the investors funding the academies are businessmen – not federations or governments. They know there is talent here, they put in money, collect the ‘raw material’, refine it and sell it to Europe.”

Beyond economic imbalance, some academies also struggle to claim the solidarity compensation they are entitled to under regulations – a FIFA mechanism allowing clubs a portion of transfer fees for players trained between ages 12 and 23 – due to administrative errors at the federation level.

When Nicolas Jackson moved from Villarreal to Chelsea in the summer of 2023 for €37 million ($43 million), he was expected to bring €185,000 ($215,000) to his former club Casa Sports. “A mistake in player registration at the federation level nearly deprived Casa Sports of its rightful income,” said Cherif Sadio, former director of the Casa Sports academy. “Casa Sports eventually fixed the administrative error to recover its entitlements. These situations are luckily resolved, but they should not happen.”

Sadio now works as development director at Diambars FC and believes the gap between top-level men’s football and the rest of the domestic game remains alarming. “It is the most striking paradox of Senegalese football and deserves to be highlighted. We produce world-class players, generate hundreds of millions of euros in transfer fees, win continental titles – yet at the same time local clubs struggle to survive, stadiums are dilapidated, the league lacks vision, and administrators have difficulty mastering the legal and financial mechanisms of modern football.”

Targeting the diaspora

Beyond producing talent through academies, Senegal can draw from a deep pool of talent within the West African diaspora in Western Europe. In recent months, the federation persuaded 18-year-old PSG striker Ibrahim Mbaye and 20-year-old Chelsea defender Mamadou Sarr – both former France Under-20 internationals – to choose the Teranga Lions.

Only a few years ago, Senegal missed out on Aston Villa midfielder Boubakar Kamara, who declined to play at the 2022 World Cup with them, opting instead to compete for a place in the France team. Persuading talents of the calibre of Mbaye and Sarr to commit to Senegal signals a matured approach to diaspora recruitment by the federation.

“The federation’s policy rests on three clear pillars,” Sadio explained. “First, they target diaspora players aged 16 to 19, before they become tied to another nation. Second, it concerns identity. Even if born in France or England, these players often grow up in Senegalese households where culture, language and values are passed on – the federation leverages that. Third, Senegal’s recent success strengthens the appeal of the project, combining ambition with identity to make choosing Senegal an individual and sporting advantage.”

The result is that Idrissa Gana Gueye, 36, born in Dakar, can line up alongside Ibrahim Mbaye, 18, born in Trappes – in a squad that is a dynamic mix of homegrown and diaspora talent, experience and promise. That combination gives coach Pape Thiaw every reason for the confidence he has shown.