Brazil’s Congress Passes Bill to Reduce Sentence for Former President Jair Bolsonaro

Brazil’s Congress, dominated by conservative lawmakers, has passed a bill to reduce the prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted last year of plotting a coup. The bill was initially approved by Congress in December but vetoed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in January, a symbolic move on the third anniversary of the attack on Brasília by Bolsonaro supporters.

In Thursday’s session, the Lower House overrode Lula’s veto with 318 votes in favor, well above the required 257, and the Senate followed with 49 votes against the 41 needed. If confirmed by a Supreme Court justice, Bolsonaro’s sentence would be reduced from 27 years and 3 months to 22 years and 1 month. Another significant change is the time served in closed regime, which could fall from 4-6 years (according to legal experts) to 2-4 years, meaning the former president could switch to open regime as early as 2028.

This is the second blow to leftist President Lula in less than 24 hours. Earlier, he suffered a historic defeat as for the first time in over 130 years, a presidential nominee for the Supreme Court was rejected by the Senate – namely lawyer Jorge Messias. While both developments were anticipated, Brazilian analysts view them as evidence that Lula – whose approval ratings are nearly tied with those of Bolsonaro’s son – will face a tough election. Lula is set to run for re-election in October in a tight race against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, one of the former president’s sons, who was also present during the vote.

Though Lula’s veto was overridden, Bolsonaro’s sentence reduction – he is currently under house arrest – is not automatic; his lawyers must file a request for sentence review with the Supreme Court. The new law not only reduces Bolsonaro’s sentence but also that of about 280 others convicted in connection with the coup plot to overturn the 2022 election results, in which the incumbent Bolsonaro lost to Lula.

President Lula has not commented on the decision. When vetoing the bill in January, he argued that reducing sentences for coup conspiracy would encourage similar crimes in the future, saying, 'This man (Bolsonaro) must go to prison.' He has also not announced whether he will nominate a new justice to replace the vacant seat on the Supreme Court. His previous nominee, Messias, delivered an anti-abortion speech during his Senate hearing – a move to attract evangelical voters (who make up 26.9% of the population and typically back Bolsonaro). The Senate had not rejected a presidential nominee since 1894, and this decision is seen as the result of an agreement between Senate President Davi Alcolumbre and the opposition led by Flávio Bolsonaro, as well as retaliation for Lula’s refusal to nominate a candidate backed by Alcolumbre.

The Senate President is reportedly telling close allies that he will only allow a new confirmation hearing after the election. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, together with the expected retirement of justices over the next four years and two previously appointed by his father, the Bolsonaro family could secure a majority of 6 out of 11 seats on the Supreme Court.