Quebec Poised to Return Separatists to Power After More Than a Decade

On October 6, voters in the Canadian province of Quebec went to the polls in a provincial election, with results forecast to deliver victory to the Parti Québécois (PQ) — a party committed to holding a referendum on independence from Canada within the next two years.

According to polls, the PQ is likely to form government in the province of roughly 9 million people, marking the first time the separatist movement has taken power in the French-speaking region in more than a decade. A PQ victory is also expected to reignite bitter debates over language and identity between Quebec and the federal government.

A party once seen as a spent force in Quebec politics has been revived by its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. The 49-year-old Oxford-educated lawyer, who speaks several languages, has positioned himself as a dynamic Generation X figure on TikTok, a counterweight to François Legault — who served as Quebec premier for years until resigning earlier this year.

Analysts say St-Pierre Plamondon's success stems not from his separatist stance — most voters do not support an independent Quebec — but from his right-wing views on sensitive identity issues. He has blamed immigrants for overcrowded schools, rising crime and soaring house prices in Quebec, while pledging deep cuts to immigration and a ban on "conspicuous" religious symbols on the bodies of teachers and students.

He has also branded critics from the left-wing party Québec Solidaire as "woke" and frequently echoes the arguments of far-right commentators. According to radio host Patrick Lagacé, many people in the province agree with St-Pierre Plamondon's arguments even though they depart from the PQ's social-democratic roots. "Most Quebecers traditionally identify as left-wing. However, more and more are leaning right when it comes to social issues such as systemic racism and the accommodation of religious practices. They have hardened on these issues," Lagacé said.

The biggest drag on support for St-Pierre Plamondon is the PQ's promise to hold a referendum in its first term. A large majority of Quebecers do not want that to happen soon, especially as Canada is caught up in a trade war with the United States. In last year's federal election, the province voted mainly for Liberal leader Mark Carney rather than the separatist Bloc Québécois, reflecting Carney's tough stance toward the Trump administration.

For the PQ, however, US President Donald Trump was initially an obstacle and later an advantage. Early in the campaign, St-Pierre Plamondon declared he would not hold a referendum as long as Trump remained in office, defusing the issue and allowing him to focus on attacking immigration and immigrants.

The party has also benefited from a four-way race for the right-wing nationalist vote outside the Liberals' reliable stronghold in Montreal — especially around Quebec City, where the upstart Quebec Conservative Party has made significant gains. "The Parti Québécois is benefiting from a big split in the vote, because those who dislike the PQ cannot agree on whom to vote for," polling analyst Philippe Fournier said.

Although the PQ is likely to form the next provincial government, it remains unclear what kind of mandate it will hold. Polls put the party at around 30%, slightly below the threshold needed to win a majority government.

In any case, St-Pierre Plamondon is laying the groundwork for confrontation with the federal government. He has weighed cutting the budget of the office of Quebec's lieutenant-governor (the Crown's representative in the province) and has pledged to pass legislation severing the province's ties to the monarchy — which separatists regard as the ultimate symbol of oppression of French-speaking Canadians.

St-Pierre Plamondon has also sharply criticized Carney after the Canadian prime minister said his government would likely raise immigration levels. He called this an "abuse of power" that would further harm French-language services in Quebec.

For a politician who cultivates a relatively youthful image, St-Pierre Plamondon's attacks on the monarchy carry a dated feel — the kind of thing the PQ did in its 1970s heyday. His attacks on the federal government are similarly retro, and could prove risky, because Carney retains support in Quebec, at least as long as the threat from Trump subsides.