Israel-Europe Relations Under Strain: What Could the Election Change?

Relations between Israel and the European Union have weathered many ups and downs, but the conflict in Gaza and recent developments are pushing the relationship into a deep rift. Meanwhile, Israel's election, expected on October 27, is considered too close to call, and analysts say significant change for Palestinians is unlikely.

In 2023, marking 75 years since Israel's founding, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: "Europe and Israel are bound together as friends and allies." The relationship once went beyond diplomacy: Israel competed in European international football and the Eurovision Song Contest and shared intelligence with European governments. Israel's arms industry was also woven into European production chains.

Those ties remain, but they have become a flashpoint after the devastating war in Gaza, where at least 74,000 Palestinians have been killed. European countries have withdrawn from Eurovision in protest at Israel's participation. European footballers have refused to play against the Israeli national team. Some past declarations of friendship have turned into condemnations.

Ireland and Spain have long led criticism of Israel over its treatment of Palestinians. At a recent UN General Assembly, Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin said Israel's actions in Gaza "will put the world to shame," while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez condemned "the genocide that Netanyahu continues to carry out in Gaza."

Notably, Britain — the country that laid the groundwork for Israel's creation through the Balfour Declaration — recently imposed a ban on goods from illegal settlements, while its foreign secretary accused Israeli settlers of "ethnic cleansing."

On Saturday, a group of settlers attacked diplomats and European officials from Belgium, France and Poland as they visited Palestinian olive harvesters near the village of Taybeh in the occupied West Bank. The incident came a day after settlers attacked an American journalist north of Ramallah, triggering widespread international condemnation.

Experts say the rift between Europe and Israel may never fully heal, as Israel heads into the October 27 election with an unpredictable outcome.

Will the election result affect Europe-Israel relations?

Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, said that if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returns to power with the far right, "some things will become irreversible. The damage caused by this government is very profound."

Nicola Perugini, a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Edinburgh, warned that re-electing a leader wanted by the International Criminal Court would leave Gazans enduring conditions that are "unlivable."

A coalition government led by Netanyahu with more liberal parties could slow settlement expansion. But a prime minister wanted by the ICC holding office is likely to worsen Israel-Europe relations further. Experts say replacing Netanyahu does not necessarily mean abandoning the policies that draw European criticism.

For example, Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff and leader of the centrist Yashar party, seen as Netanyahu's main rival, has opposed the creation of a Palestinian state.

An annual public opinion survey by Israel's Mitvim Institute last year found that 67% of Israelis viewed the EU as an adversary, compared with 14% who saw it as a friend.

Mekelberg said that under a more liberal government, "the dialogue with Europe will be more reasonable and rational," but warned the picture would not change overnight.

According to analysts, more humanitarian aid could reach Palestinians and the pace of settlement expansion could slow. The E1 settlement plan could be scrapped.

However, Julie M Norman, a researcher at Chatham House, said that might not be enough for European governments to mend relations. Instead, Europe will look for concrete steps toward establishing a Palestinian state and ending the occupation.

"But so far, we have not seen that under the current government and possibly not under the next one either," she said.

'Ruling elites in many countries are trying to align with the public'

At the start of the Gaza war, Western leaders backed Israel's campaign. But sustained pressure from groups demanding an end to the assault on Gaza and violence in the West Bank — from human rights organizations, international courts, unions and professional bodies to millions of protesters worldwide — has forced governments to act, analysts say.

"Now the ruling elites in many countries are trying to align with the public," Neve Gordon, an Israeli professor of human rights law at Queen Mary University of London, told Al Jazeera, adding that the pro-Palestine movement has changed governments' "conventional" views.

A Pew Research Center survey in Britain found the share of people with an unfavorable view of Israel rose from 61% to 69% between spring 2025 and this spring; in Italy it rose from 66% to 75%; and in Germany, one of Israel's closest allies, from 64% to 73%.

Nathalie Tocci, an Italian political scientist, linked this pressure to recognition of a Palestinian state, moves toward suspending the EU-Israel association agreement and a ban on imports from settlements.

"If anything has affected European policy toward Israel, it is the wave of protests in recent years," she said.

Norman of Chatham House said European countries had moved from targeted measures, such as sanctions on far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, toward "broader structures, in terms of scrutinizing the Israeli state itself."

However, support for Israel persists in some parts of Europe, according to Professor Janina Dill of Oxford University. She said two successive German governments had been "entirely unwilling to act on legitimate public criticism of Germany's diplomatic and material support for Israel."

While overall support is declining, Israel has sought to build ties with Europe's far right, finding common ground in nationalism and hostility toward Islam, despite historical and current links to antisemitism.

Menachem Klein, a senior lecturer at Bar-Ilan University, told Al Jazeera that the current government has caused "enormous damage to relations with friends and allies" — and the scars will take time to heal.

Mekelberg added that improving relations requires concrete steps toward a peace process and a different future for Palestinians. Even then, the damage will linger.

Israel's isolation

Israel's election debate centers on security rather than the morality of continuing to kill Palestinians or the country's international standing. Israel's wars abroad appear to enjoy broad domestic support.

An Israel Democracy Institute survey in April found that 92% of Jewish Israelis approved of how the military handled the war with Iran. 80% supported continuing to fight Hezbollah, even at the cost of friction with Washington. In September, a Jewish People Policy Institute survey found that 72% of Jewish Israelis would not accept a withdrawal to the Gaza border without maintaining an Israeli security belt inside the territory.

Israel's diplomatic isolation would therefore seem an obvious election issue. Instead, "it is barely discussed," Yaakov Katz, co-founder of the US-Middle East Dialogue Forum, wrote for Chatham House.

Instead, the main themes are weakening Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, while the opposition promises to lower the cost of living, investigate the failures around the October 7 attack and mobilize members of the ultra-Orthodox community for military service.

"It is not that Israelis are unaware of the university protests, arms embargoes, growing European sanctions, recognition of a Palestinian state and the ICC arrest warrant," Katz wrote. "The October 7 attack shaped Israeli public opinion to such an extent that when a foreign government criticizes Israel… Israelis see only two positions: the criticism is either antisemitic or ignorant."