Trump signals possible call with Taiwan leader: What it means
Nils Adler
US President Donald Trump has twice suggested he may speak with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te after his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week, potentially breaking decades of diplomatic norms and straining US-China relations. Analysts view the remarks as a sign of unpredictability rather than a warming of ties, though Beijing has signaled strong opposition to any official exchanges.
US President Donald Trump has twice suggested, following his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week, that he may speak with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te. If realized, it would mark the first direct contact between leaders of the two governments since Washington shifted diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.
Under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the US maintains a commitment to the self-governing democracy's defense. In a statement Wednesday, Taiwan's president said he would be "willing" to talk with Trump, adding that Taiwan remains committed to stability in the Taiwan Strait, but that "China is the breaker of peace and stability."
The remarks come as the White House weighs a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan. China's foreign ministry responded that Beijing "firmly opposes official exchanges" between the US and Taiwan, as well as US arms sales to the island.
Analysts say Trump's comments suggest he may be ready to break long-standing diplomatic norms, which would irritate Beijing. However, they also view it as a sign of unpredictability rather than a warming of US-Taiwan ties.
How might China react?
Based on past events, Beijing would not be pleased if Trump meets or speaks with Taiwan's president. In 2022, then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan escalated tensions between the two nations. China subsequently ramped up large-scale military drills around Taiwan, and US-China relations hit a low, showing "China is serious about not wanting any communication between Washington and Taipei."
In 2016, after his first election victory, then-President-elect Trump accepted a phone call from then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. Beijing issued a diplomatic protest, accusing Trump of undermining the "One China" policy. Chinese state media warned the call could damage bilateral ties.
Steve Tsang, director of SOAS China Institute in London, said the incident created "a big noise" in Beijing. He noted that Trump may have forgotten the call and Beijing's "very hostile" reaction, and might be reminded by staff, likely refraining from speaking with President Lai.
If Trump does speak with Lai, Beijing's response "will partly depend on how Donald Trump presents the issue." If Trump simply says he spoke with Lai, Beijing "will react very strongly"; but if he says he spoke with Lai at Xi's request, Beijing's reaction could be milder.
Wen-ti Sung, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Center, observed: "Trump's hallmark is making previously unproblematic things problematic; breaking norms or crossing red lines is normal for him."
Will this sour the friendly atmosphere from the Beijing visit?
Last week, Trump traveled to Beijing to meet Xi with a delegation of US business leaders. He lavished praise on Xi, saying: "It's an honor to be your friend, and the relationship between China and the US will be better than ever." Trump left the summit with many claims of trade deals, but Chinese statements mentioned no such agreements. Trump also carefully avoided the Taiwan issue, even ignoring a reporter's question on it.
However, analysts say whether this atmosphere is spoiled depends on Trump's next moves, which are highly unpredictable. Tsang said: "If Trump calls Lai and declares the US will 'continue to support Taiwan and provide a large arms package, things will turn bad.'" But he also suggested that Trump even considering discussing with Xi whether the US sells arms to certain countries is a win for Beijing.
What is the US commitment to Taiwan?
The US is Taiwan's most significant arms supplier. Last December, Trump announced an over $11 billion arms package, the largest in history. However, after his Beijing visit, he has repeatedly shown a lack of support for Taiwan independence. On Fox News, he said: "I don't want someone to be independent. And, you know, we have to travel 9,500 miles to fight. I don't want that. I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down."
Sung believes Taipei will not view Trump's suggestion that he may speak with their leader as an effort to warm relations. "Trump-style diplomacy can be very ad hoc; think of him acting on what he believes are his winning instincts, not playing three-dimensional macro chess." Tsang added that Taiwan will be concerned about Trump's unpredictability: "He is not anti-Taiwan... but do you trust your future in Donald Trump's hands? Even if he loves you, he could kill you."
Will the US-Taiwan arms deal go through?
"I can do it. I may not do it," Trump told Fox News on Friday. Since the Beijing trip, he has also suggested it is a bargaining chip with China, as the US considers approving a new arms sale package. Lai's government insists US policy toward Taiwan "remains unchanged." Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo stated: "I think we remain cautiously optimistic about arms purchases."
