Trump Says 'Good Prospects' from Iran Talks, Strait of Hormuz Control at Center

President Donald Trump said on July 28 that Washington is taking part in 'very friendly negotiations' with Iran after suspending airstrikes last week, raising hopes that weeks of escalating attacks might make way for a return to diplomacy.

Speaking to supporters in Michigan on Monday, Trump said there are 'good prospects' for progress in talks aimed at ending months of fighting, but repeated a warning that military action could resume if negotiations fail.

Iran publicly rejects holding direct talks with Washington. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran is not negotiating with the United States but added 'mediators can convey messages from the U.S. side to us about the developments taking place in the region.'

According to Axios, Oman is leading the mediation effort, joined by Qatar, Pakistan and Egypt, along with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

The talks come as fighting subsided since last Friday, after nearly two weeks of attacks by both sides raised fears of a wider regional war.

Why did attacks erupt after the June memorandum?

A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on June 17 committed Iran to facilitating free passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for an initial 60 days. Iran interpreted this as giving it control and requiring ships to use routes it approved. Tehran also hinted it could impose transit fees after the 60-day period ended.

However, Oman announced a new shipping corridor through the strait, saying it was coordinated with the International Maritime Organization and backed by the United States. Iran called that a violation of the MoU.

On June 25, a commercial vessel following the Omani-approved route was attacked off the coast of Oman. The next day, the U.S. launched further airstrikes on Iran. Several other ships were attacked afterward.

Iran declared the strait closed, sending oil prices surging. The U.S. responded with a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Attacks expanded beyond military targets to include civilian infrastructure.

How are the negotiations proceeding?

The talks focus on control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran insists on maintaining control and authority, arguing that all vessels transiting must coordinate with Iran and follow a route close to its coast.

Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi held a series of phone calls with his counterparts from Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt to narrow differences.

Mediators are exploring proposals giving Iran and Oman a larger role in managing strait traffic, including creating a regional consortium responsible for maritime security, search and rescue, and allowing Gulf states to collect fees related to maritime security and environmental protection.

Iranian Parliament Speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signaled that full freedom of navigation through the strait will no longer remain on the table.

Is there a 'third way'?

Beyond the strait, negotiators are also trying to resolve the issue of sanctions relief. Iran wants access to frozen assets, while the U.S. says that depends on Iran keeping the strait open.

A possible compromise would see Iran accept limits on how it collects transit fees in exchange for sanctions relief and a gradual release of frozen assets. However, deep mutual mistrust remains the biggest obstacle.

Has the threat of airstrikes convinced Iran to concede?

Experts say this is unlikely. Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., questioned Trump's suggestion that U.S. military action forced Iran back to talks.

Trump's suspension of airstrikes came as reports indicated U.S. concerns over dwindling stocks of air-defense interceptor missiles, while Iran still retains significant missile and drone capabilities. Experts say military and economic pressures may have actually hardened Iran's negotiating stance.

Factors that could derail a peace deal

Despite new diplomatic efforts, major obstacles remain. The conflict is no longer confined to Washington and Tehran but has spread, involving the Houthis in Yemen, Ukraine, and the situation in Lebanon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington on Tuesday is expected to include discussions on Iran. Analysts say Netanyahu, who has advocated military action against Tehran, is likely to argue against easing pressure.