Trump faces uphill battle to isolate Iran amid deep trade ties with China, Russia

US President Donald Trump has threatened financial penalties against any nation providing an economic "lifeline" to Iran, as he announced a "maximum economic pressure campaign" targeting Tehran. The move, which follows a series of damaging trade wars during his second term, is seen as the latest effort to use American economic might to achieve foreign policy goals.

However, analysts say Trump's ability to pressure China and Russia—two key trading partners of Iran—is limited. Russia is already heavily sanctioned by the US and operates largely outside the US-led economic framework. Meanwhile, China has repeatedly shown it is willing to ignore US sanctions when doing so serves its economic interests.

Paul Musgrave, associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that Trump would find it "very difficult" to effectively implement the pressure campaign. "Trump is trying to unilaterally impose coordinated sanctions that normally require multilateral cooperation, which means bringing China, Russia, and other permanent members of the UN Security Council into a united front," Musgrave said.

Warning of 'massive economic consequences'

In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump called the anti-Iran campaign "the most stringent economic campaign ever imposed on any country." He also warned of "massive economic consequences" for nations that help Iran evade sanctions, citing measures such as "oil smuggling, currency exchanges, cash transfers, money changers, ship registrations, and shell companies." "All must stop NOW," he wrote.

The same day, the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—a country Iran has long relied on for essential imports and access to trade markets—announced an indefinite trade embargo on Tehran, after accusing Iran's military of launching two ballistic missiles at its territory. Nader Habibi, professor of Middle East economics at Brandeis University, said the US "heavily encouraged or instigated" the UAE to impose the trade embargo, and the US may pressure other trading partners of Iran, including its largest, China.

Challenges to breaking China-Iran trade plans

Any US plan to disrupt China-Iran trade is likely to face significant barriers. While China bought up to 80% of Iran's shipped oil in 2025, according to data from analytics firm Kpler, targeting Chinese refineries is often difficult because most are independent facilities with limited reliance on the US financial system.

Sanctioning major Chinese banks if they handle Iranian funds, as the US Treasury has threatened, could have an impact, but could also prompt Chinese retaliation during a delicate diplomatic period. Yu Jie, senior research fellow at Chatham House, argued that Trump's threats against Iran's economic allies "will not change China's existing engagement and trade relationship with Iran."

Musgrave said any "aggressive" US secondary sanctions on Iran would have significant implications, but Trump may not want to endanger US-China economic ties while the two nations are "in a cold economic war." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian responded to Trump's economic pressure campaign by saying more sanctions "will not help resolve the issue." China urged all parties to take responsible measures and resolve the matter through diplomatic and political means.

The US is seeking to manage tensions with China ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's scheduled visit to Washington next month. According to Yu Jie, "the ongoing Gulf conflict is one of the issues both sides will discuss," but "it will not be the most important issue."

Russia's parallel relationship

Russia poses a different challenge for Washington. While a smaller trading partner for Iran than China, Moscow and Tehran have spent years building significant trade and military ties aimed at circumventing the West. In January 2025, the two heavily sanctioned nations signed a 20-year partnership treaty, helping boost bilateral trade volume to $4.8 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, according to Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev.

Beyond sanctioned oil, Russia and Iran are also believed to have exchanged weapons and military equipment via the Caspian Sea. On Monday, NBC News, citing a European government document, reported that Russia had shipped "drone components, ammunition, and TNT explosives" by sea to Iran. The US has imposed comprehensive economic sanctions on Russia.

Iran's response and 'economic terrorism'

Iran's foreign minister on Wednesday criticized Trump's economic campaign, calling it a continuation of Washington's "failed policies" that will lead to "another failure." "The economic terrorism of the US threatens the global economy and sovereignty worldwide," Abbas Araghchi wrote on X.

As a member of BRICS—an organization including Russia, China, India, Brazil, and other powers—Iran seeks to use its position to find new financial channels. Last week, Central Bank of Iran Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said Iran plans to join the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), opening another financial window outside Western markets. He also suggested BRICS countries could trade in local currencies, and Tehran is moving toward bilateral and trilateral currency cooperation with BRICS members. The NDB has not commented on the possibility of Iran becoming a member.

Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Research in Tehran, said Iran will seek to move forward despite US sanctions meant to be "suffocating." "Trump is stuck in a war he cannot win and cannot exit," Dareini told Al Jazeera.